Research & News
Asset Allocation Weekly (January 11, 2019)
by Asset Allocation Committee Does the Federal Reserve adjust policy for asset prices? This is perhaps one of the most controversial topics in U.S. monetary policy. Alan Greenspan faced this issue in the early 1990s. Both Volcker and Greenspan wanted to focus monetary policy on containing inflation. But, Larry Lindsey, a Fed governor at the time,… Read More »
Daily Comment (January 11, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] U.S. equity futures are modestly lower this morning in a very quiet market. Yesterday, we started the day lower but moved higher. Although much of the rally was probably due to Chair Powell’s “patient” speech, it also points to a different market tone. Last month, rallies… Read More »
Daily Comment (January 10, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] U.S. equity futures are lower this morning as the markets take a “pause to refresh.” Here is what we are watching this morning: Oh, that’s what you meant: The FOMC minutes were released yesterday and signaled a decidedly dovish turn in policy.[1] The text of the… Read More »
Daily Comment (January 9, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] U.S. equity futures are higher again this morning as the recovery continues. Here is what we are watching today: Shutdown: The president went primetime last night to make his case for a wall. The Democrats responded. Nothing has changed and the shutdown drags on. For the… Read More »
Daily Comment (January 8, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] U.S. equity futures are higher this morning as the recovery continues. Here is what we are watching today: Fed news: Atlanta FRB President Bostic suggested that the policy rate may be near neutral and perhaps only one more increase is needed.[1] Bostic has made it clear… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Reflections on Inflections: Part I (January 7, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady History seems to move in broad cycles. Beliefs come into and fall out of favor. Despite evidence of these cycles, people tend to “forecast with a straight edge.” In other words, we assume trends that are in place will remain in place forever. And, thus, it can come as a shock to society… Read More »
Daily Comment (January 7, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] U.S. equity futures are flat this morning after a strong rally on Friday. Here is what we are watching this morning: Powell the dove: Chair Powell participated in a panel discussion on Friday that included former Fed Chairs Bernanke and Yellen. He pretty much said everything… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (January 4, 2019)
by Asset Allocation Committee Quantitative easing (QE) was an element of unconventional monetary policy that emerged from the Great Financial Crisis. When the Federal Reserve lowered the fed funds target to zero (known as the “zero interest rate policy,” or ZIRP), policymakers decided that taking the policy rate below zero would not further stimulate the economy. … Read More »
Daily Comment (January 4, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] After a hard sell-off in equities yesterday, we are seeing a bounce this morning. Boosting sentiment are hopes for a dovish tone from Chair Powell, a reserve rate cut in China and the opening of formal trade talks between the U.S. and China. We cover the… Read More »
Daily Comment (January 3, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It was all about Apple (AAPL, 157.92), which is down around 8% in the pre-market trade, and the yen. Here is what’s going on: AAPL: Apple[1] released a letter warning investors that the company would miss revenue estimates. Two reasons were given for the decline, weaker… Read More »