Research & News
Daily Comment (March 11, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] On this day in 1918, the first cases of Spanish influenza were reported in Ft. Riley, Kansas. How ironic it is that we’re now dealing with another big epidemic, though there is still no indication that it will be a mass killer… Read More »
Daily Comment (March 10, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] Happy Tuesday! The markets are looking better than yesterday, largely based on signs that the White House has swung behind the idea of significant fiscal measures to offset the negative impact of the COVID-19 panic. We update the latest news on the… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – On Pandemics (March 9, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady Since January, the world has been dealing with the COVID-19 virus, a new coronavirus that has been spreading around the world. Because this situation is still evolving, it is too early to determine the overall impact of this specific virus. We update our views on COVID-19 regularly in our Daily Comment report.… Read More »
Daily Comment (March 9, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] Global equities suffered a deep slide overnight; equity futures fell to limit down levels, so we are not sure how far they will decline on the open. The 30-year Treasury yield broke 1% and the 10-year T-note has fallen below 50 bps. … Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (March 6, 2020)
by Asset Allocation Committee In the turmoil caused by COVID-19, fixed income has performed remarkably well. Ten-year T-note yields have declined to record lows and, as we will show below, there is no evidence of severe stress in the credit markets. First, here is what we are seeing in Treasuries. This chart shows our 10-year T-note… Read More »
Daily Comment (March 6, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] It’s Friday employment day, although the data is mostly irrelevant. This report covers February, before COVID-19 hit the U.S. economy. We detail the data below, but the quick read is that the data was very strong. As has been our practice, we… Read More »
Daily Comment (March 5, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] Happy Thursday! After a strong equity market rally yesterday, which lifted stocks in Asia overnight, Europe turned lower and U.S. equity futures are also falling. We update COVID-19 news. The U.S. won a battle with China over global regulation. Turkey and Russia… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (March 5, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA Crude oil inventories rose 0.8 mb compared to the forecast rise of 3.0 mb. In the details, U.S. crude oil production rose 0.1 mbpd to a new record of 13.1 mbpd. Exports rose 0.5 mbpd, while imports were unchanged. The inventory build was less than forecast… Read More »
Daily Comment (March 4, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] After yesterday’s wild rollercoaster ride in the markets, we’re looking for a happier Wednesday. We provide an update to the COVID-19 panic and the confusing policy responses, as well as a recap of yesterday’s Super Tuesday primaries. On a less positive note,… Read More »