Research & News
Daily Comment (March 24, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] As Tuesday dawns and financial markets surge, it’s important to remember that true market stabilization amidst the pandemic would probably require three things: 1) full support for the economy and financial markets by the Federal Reserve and other major central banks; 2)… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – On Optimization (March 23, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady In our discussions of COVID-19, we have noted that part of the reason the virus has been so disruptive is because the world has adopted a stance that optimization is an unalloyed positive. When I was in graduate school, I participated in a seminar with several professional private sector economists. A question… Read More »
Daily Comment (March 23, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] It’s Monday. Global markets remain in risk-off mode after the Senate’s first swing at the third phase of the rescue package fails. BREAKING: FED GIVEN BROADER POWERS TO INTERVENE IN FINANCIAL MARKETS—MORE BELOW—S&P FUTURES RECOVER. We update the COVID-19 virus news. Here… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (March 20, 2020)
by Asset Allocation Committee During the recent market tumult, gold has performed rather well, until lately. This chart shows the nearest gold futures contract over the past year. From mid-January, when reports of COVID-19 began to circulate, gold prices marched steadily higher, making an intraday high of $1,704.30. Since then, this has declined by over $250… Read More »
Daily Comment (March 20, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] Good morning and happy Friday! “There are decades where nothing happens, and there are weeks where decades happen.” This quote, misappropriated to Lenin, seems to capture much of how things feel right now. It’s a “green screen day” with equity futures rebounding… Read More »
Daily Comment (March 19, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] Today is the spring equinox; it’s hard to say if this is a good or bad omen. We update COVID-19 news. Although there is much to say about the financial markets, to some extent, it can be summed up succinctly—there is a… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (March 19, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA Crude oil inventories rose 2.0 mb compared to the forecast rise of 3.5 mb. In the details, U.S. crude oil production rose 0.1 mbpd to 13.1 mbpd. Exports rose 1.0 mbpd, while imports rose 0.1 mbpd. The inventory build was less than forecast due to the… Read More »
Daily Comment (March 18, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] Well, it’s Wednesday, and we face another day right out of a post-apocalyptic zombie movie. While there is still no sign of zombie armies marching on Washington, there is a more worrying sign that global financial markets are seizing up in a… Read More »
Daily Comment (March 17, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] Happy St. Patrick’s Day! To celebrate the holiday, we think it would be great if the markets could end the day “in the green.” However, much will depend on news flow related to the COVID-19 “black swan.” With so many fast-moving developments,… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Renewed Fighting in Idlib (March 16, 2020)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA When financial markets get caught up in a crisis like the ongoing coronavirus panic, one underappreciated risk for investors is that they can get too distracted to notice other, longer-term problems that might be brewing. That’s why we take such a disciplined approach to monitoring geopolitical, economic, social and market events… Read More »