Research & News
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Investment Implications of Changing Demographics: Part II (February 24, 2020)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA In Part I of this report, we looked at current key global population trends. The report showed how plunging birth rates have been weighing on population growth and boosting average ages all over the world, potentially having a huge impact on the distribution of geopolitical power, economic prospects and future investment… Read More »
Daily Comment (February 24, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] It’s “red Monday” – global equities are taking a hit as the COVID-19 virus is starting to look like a global pandemic. Risk assets are down around the world while most risk-off assets, gold and Treasuries, are rallying. We cover three elections… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (February 21, 2020)
by Asset Allocation Committee In 2017, we introduced an indicator of the basic health of the economy and added it to the many charts we monitor to gauge market conditions. The indicator is constructed using commodity prices, initial claims and consumer confidence. The thesis behind this indicator is that these three components should offer a simple… Read More »
Daily Comment (February 21, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] It’s Friday! Virus worries lead to mixed equity markets but a distinct element of worry—gold—continues to move higher despite dollar strength. Treasury yields continue to fall. However, the other flight-to-safety asset, the JPY, has failed to rally this time on fears of… Read More »
Daily Comment (February 20, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] Global equities are mixed this morning with U.S. equity futures taking a breather. We update the COVID-19 news. The Fed is warming up to the economy. U.K. changes immigration rules. A new DNI. The president is off to India. Trouble in Argentina. … Read More »
Daily Comment (February 19, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] World equity markets have mostly shrugged off yesterday’s weakness and continue to focus on the post COVID-19 world; doses of additional stimulus aren’t hurting either. The Fed releases its minutes from the last meeting today. Here are the details: COVID-19: The number… Read More »
Daily Comment (February 18, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] Welcome back! Equities are under pressure due to Apple (APPL, 324.95) news. The U.K. rejects the EU trade agreement proposals as it appears Britain is ramping up fiscal spending. The Netherlands threatens the EU/Canada trade deal. We’re seeing rising tensions over the… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (February 14, 2020)
by Asset Allocation Committee The data on U.S. residential real estate has been improving in recent months. Housing tends to have an outsized effect on the economy. Not only do housing purchases trigger follow-on buying of consumer durable goods (e.g., furniture and furnishings, etc.) but non-durables as well (e.g., basic household items). A house is an… Read More »
Daily Comment (February 14, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] Happy Friday and St. Valentines Day! It’s rather quiet in the financial markets, with bonds doing well and equities grinding higher. We update news on COVID-19. There is unrest in Colombia, and more legal action on Huawei (002502, CNY 2.61). We have… Read More »
Daily Comment (February 13, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] After a steady rise, equities are lower this morning following a jump in reported infections; we update news on COVID-19. The nominating process for the remaining two vacant governor positions begins today. PM Johnson shakes up his cabinet. The CDU/CSU begins the… Read More »