Research & News
Asset Allocation Weekly (July 10, 2020)
by Asset Allocation Committee Equity markets, to a greater or lesser degree, tend to reflect social and political trends. After all, the mood of investors plays a role in the propensity to move money into stock markets. Unfortunately, the impact of social or political events on equities tends to be a mixed bag. The chart below… Read More »
Daily Comment (July 9, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Good morning. Global equities are higher as Chinese markets continue on a tear. News on China leads our commentary this morning. Our usual update of the pandemic follows, along with foreign news, an update on policy, market action and the economy. The… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (July 9, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA Here is an updated crude oil price chart. The oil market has stabilized at higher levels after April’s historic collapse. Crude oil inventories rose well above market expectations, with stockpiles rising 5.3 mb compared to forecasts of a 3.0 mb draw. The SPR added 0.6 mb… Read More »
Daily Comment (July 8, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Despite rising stock markets overseas, sentiment in the U.S. markets today seems finely balanced between optimism about post-virus economic reopenings and accommodative policies on the one hand and the reality of resurgent infections and renewed lockdowns in some locales on the other… Read More »
Daily Comment (July 7, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Risk assets are under pressure this morning in part because of multiple reports pointing to the reimposition of coronavirus lockdowns in some locales and the risk of halting, prolonged economic recovery. On top of that, geopolitical tensions between the Western democracies and… Read More »
Daily Comment (July 6, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Good morning, and happy Monday! U.S. equity futures and global equity markets are moving higher this morning led by China after comments in the state media suggested it’s good to buy stocks. We update the pandemic news. China has several news items… Read More »
Daily Comment (July 2, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Good morning, and happy Thursday! This is the last trading day of the week before the Independence Day holiday, so there will be no Daily Comment tomorrow; enjoy the holiday! Global equity markets are higher this morning on improving global economic data. … Read More »
Daily Comment (July 1, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] A slew of purchasing managers’ indexes from around the world today show manufacturing activity is either growing again, or declining at a much milder pace than at the initial peak of the coronavirus crisis (see tables below). However, renewed infection outbreaks and… Read More »
Daily Comment (June 30, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] U.S. risk assets are little changed today as encouraging economic data out of China is being largely offset by reports of renewed coronavirus outbreaks and lockdowns in many key U.S. states and some foreign localities. At the same time, geopolitics are rising… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Geopolitics of the Eurobond (June 29, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady | PDF (N.B. Due to the Independence Day holiday, the next report will be published on July 13.) A global hegemon provides two broad categories of public goods. The first is security. A successful hegemon enforces some degree of global security as it has the ability to project power globally. This power… Read More »