Research & News
Daily Comment (July 23, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF U.S. equity markets continue to tick higher, buoyed by expectations of continued stimulus. The stronger EUR is lifting European stocks, while Chinese equities fell on U.S./China tensions. Relations with China continue to deteriorate; that’s our lead-off story this morning. We… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (July 23, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Here is an updated crude oil price chart. The oil market has stabilized at higher levels after April’s historic collapse. Crude oil inventories reversed part of last week’s unexpected draw, with stockpiles rising 4.9 mb compared to forecasts of a 0.8 mb draw. The… Read More »
Daily Comment (July 22, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Global financial markets are facing some headwinds today from new U.S.-China tensions and signs that the negotiations over the next U.S. coronavirus relief bill may be tougher than previously expected. We review all the key news below. United States-China: Following… Read More »
Asset Allocation Quarterly (Third Quarter 2020)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF We expect the current U.S. recession to be deep, yet brief, with a long period of recovery and the potential for expansion toward the latter portion of our forecast period. The Federal Reserve has stabilized the financial markets and ensured the continued functioning of the corporate debt market.… Read More »
Daily Comment (July 21, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF A new Confluence of Ideas podcast episode is available, titled “The 2020 Election: Part 3.” This is the final episode looking at the 2020 election. In this episode, we handicap the election based on the tools of prediction, polling and… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Threat of Militarization in Brazil (July 20, 2020)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF When investors think about Latin American politics and policy, the various countries’ military forces often come to mind. You’d almost think the region was a hotbed of international aggression, invasions, and state-to-state warfare. The reality is that for the last century, national military organizations in Central and South America… Read More »
Daily Comment (July 20, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Good morning and happy Monday! Equity markets are mixed; the U.S. is modestly lower, while Chinese markets jumped on reports that insurance companies will be able to hold more stocks. Foreign news leads today’s report as the EU was unable… Read More »
Daily Comment (July 17, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Good morning! Equity markets are modestly higher after a choppy week. The EU budget summit is underway. Relations between the U.S. and China continue to deteriorate. The new Asset Allocation Weekly is published below; the accompanying podcast and chartbook will… Read More »