Research & News
Daily Comment (June 15, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Good morning and happy Monday! It’s another risk-off day as financial markets recoil from reports of rising COVID-19 infections. Our usual commentary on COVID-19 is available. We update on China and trade issues with the U.K./EU/U.S. We are watching U.S./Russian relations as… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (June 12, 2020)
by Asset Allocation Committee Although gold is the primary precious metal for investors, platinum, palladium and silver also can fulfill that role. Complicating matters is that these three metals are dual-use products. Unlike gold, which has few uses outside of monetary (store of value) purposes and jewelry, these other three have industrial uses as well. About… Read More »
Daily Comment (June 12, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Good morning and happy Friday! After a big drop yesterday, equities are recovering this morning. Our take gets top billing in today’s report. Next up is tech news, followed by foreign developments. After those sections, we offer a couple of interesting charts.… Read More »
Daily Comment (June 11, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Good morning. It’s a risk-off day so far, with global equities falling. Some of this appears to be some well-deserved profit taking in the wake of a strong equity rally. The FOMC meeting ended yesterday. We examine what they announced and other… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (June 11, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA Here is an updated crude oil price chart. The oil market continues to recover after April’s historic collapse. Crude oil inventories surprised the markets again, with stockpiles rising 5.7 mb compared to forecasts of a 3.0 mb draw. The SPR added 2.2 mb this week. In… Read More »
Daily Comment (June 10, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] The relatively muted tenor in risk assets so far today comes as investors look forward to the Fed’s latest policy decision, forecast update and Chairman Powell’s news conference this afternoon. We’ve also seen some pessimistic forecasts for the global economy from the… Read More »
Daily Comment (June 9, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Our newest podcast episode, “The Long-Term Effects of COVID-19,” is available. In this episode, we discuss how the COVID-19 pandemic will likely accelerate the reversal of the equality/efficiency cycle toward equality. Many countries continue to report falling coronavirus infection rates and economic… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Geopolitics of the 2020 Election: Part III (June 8, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady | PDF In this five-part series on the geopolitics of the 2020 election, we have divided the reports into nine sections. Last week, in Part II, we discussed the second and third sections, understanding the electorate and party coalitions. In this report, we continue our coverage with the fourth and fifth sections,… Read More »
Daily Comment (June 8, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Our newest podcast episode, “The Long-Term Effects of COVID-19,” is available. In this episode, we discuss how the COVID-19 pandemic will likely accelerate the reversal of the equality/efficiency cycle toward equality. Good morning and happy Monday! Global stocks are mixed; Europe is… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (June 5, 2020)
by Asset Allocation Committee Last week, we discussed how equity markets, because of their anticipatory nature, tend to bottom in advance of the end of recessions. Assuming that condition continues, if our expectations for a short recession (but probably a long recovery) are correct, it would make sense that the equity market would have already bottomed. … Read More »