by Bill O’Grady
In our 2018 Mid-Year Geopolitical Outlook we opened the report with an analysis of America’s evolving hegemony. We noted that America’s hegemonic narrative centered on containing communism. This factor united Americans to accept the burden of the superpower role. However, embedded in that commitment to contain communism was the “freezing” of three conflict zones.
In Part I of this report, we will identify and reiterate the need to stabilize these three areas in order to maintain global peace. We will focus on the Middle East and discuss the development of the Carter Doctrine and examine how the doctrine has been enforced since its inception. In Part II, we will discuss the reasons for the breakdown of the order prior to President Trump and follow this discussion with the impact of the current president. We will project the likely actions of the nations in the region and, as always, conclude with market ramifications.