Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – The ECB Dilemma (July 11, 2022)

by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF

When the Eurozone project began, investors assumed that the credit risk for individual countries would be shared equally among the group’s members. This notion unraveled after the collapse of Lehman Brothers set off a chain of events that triggered the European Sovereign Debt Crisis in 2010. As the chart below shows, the average yield on 10-year sovereign bonds for peripheral and core countries was nearly the same from 1998 to 2008. Thereafter, interest rates diverged as investors realized that core governments would not bail out peripheral countries if they ran into trouble. Following Mario Draghi’s “whatever it takes” speech, in which he reassured investors that the ECB was willing to intervene in markets to prevent yield spreads from widening, bond spreads started to converge. However, the fundamental issue of who will ensure the credit risk of peripheral countries was never actually addressed.

By purchasing bonds and expanding its balance sheet, the ECB was able to place a cap on bond yields. Although this measure disproportionately benefits peripheral countries, the action is a form of monetary stimulus, which can increase inflation. Initially, when the ECB implemented its bond purchasing program, inflation was well below its 2% target, making its decision relatively risk-free. However, now that inflation has hit 8% for the first time in the Eurozone’s history, continuing the program may contribute to the price pressures. In short, the ECB is using the same tool to fight two contending issues. As a result, the central bank has to choose between containing inflation or allowing financial fragmentation. Nobel-winning economist Jan Tinbergen predicted this dilemma when he posited that a central bank would need an equal number of policy tools to tackle an equal number of policy problems.

Following the market’s reaction to its decision to tighten monetary policy, which saw yield spreads widen, the ECB announced it had created a new anti-fragmentation tool. The bank is expected to reinvest maturing bonds from its pandemic emergency purchase program on its balance sheet, but it isn’t clear how this mechanism could work. Theoretically, they could use the funds to invest only in periphery countries, but this would likely anger core European countries like Germany, who would interpret the move as a bailout. Another possibility is that the ECB uses an updated version of Outright Monetary Transactions (OMT). This action would allow the central bank to purchase the bonds of vulnerable countries in the secondary market on the condition they meet specific fiscal guidelines, a requirement that could trigger a political backlash in the periphery nations. The central bank is expected to iron out the details of the anti-fragmentation tool at its July 21 meeting.

Although the recent narrowing of the interest spread between Italian and German 10-year bonds suggests that the market has confidence the bank will come to a satisfactory resolution, we remain skeptical. The ECB has an explicit goal to maintain price stability and an implicit aim of preserving the Eurozone. Neither choice has a desirable outcome. If it tackles inflation, investors will push up the borrowing cost for peripheral countries like Italy. The rise in borrowing costs could trigger a fiscal crisis and force a government to abandon the euro. On the other hand, if it chooses to keep bond spreads narrow to preserve the euro, it may risk raising inflation expectations along with higher inflation. The most likely outcome of this uncertainty is euro weakness.

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Weekly Energy Update (June 30, 2022)

by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF

(N.B.=> due to Independence Day, the next report will be issued on July 14.)

The DOE has resolved its systems issues and released weekly data for 6/17/22 and 6/24/22.  We update the data below.

After a sharp correction on recession worries, crude oil prices are recovering.

(Source: Barchart.com)

Crude oil inventories fell 2.8 mb compared to a 1.0 mb draw forecast.  The SPR declined 7.0 mb, meaning the net draw was 9.8 mb.

In the details, U.S. crude oil production rose from 0.1 mbpd to 12.1 mbpd.  Exports and imports both fell 0.2 mbpd.  Refining activity rose 1.0% to 95.0% of capacity.

(Sources: DOE, CIM)

The above chart shows the seasonal pattern for crude oil inventories.  This week’s report hints we are starting the usual seasonal decline in inventory that should last into early September.  We are not seeing declines similar to last year but something more like the average path.

Since the SPR is being used, to some extent, as a buffer stock, we have constructed oil inventory charts incorporating both the SPR and commercial inventories.

Total stockpiles peaked in 2017 and are now at levels seen in 2004.  Using total stocks since 2015, fair value is $100.86.

With so many crosscurrents in the oil markets, we see some degree of normalization.  The inventory/EUR model suggests oil prices should be around $65 per barrel, so we are seeing about $50 of risk premium in the market.

 Market news:

  • Last week, Energy Secretary Granholm met with energy executives. Although the runup to the meeting suggested a “woodshed” moment, in reality, the government really can’t do much to get more product supply to market.  Refineries are running around 95% of capacity, and short of nationalizing the industry and running at a loss, there isn’t much that can be done to ease prices.  It seems the meeting was cordial.  Perhaps the administration realizes (finally!) that lambasting the industry isn’t conducive to cooperation.
    • In a sense, the administration wants the oil and gas industry to expand furiously in the short run, only to strand the assets in the long run. That isn’t likely to work.
    • The White House has proposed a gas tax holiday for the summer. Not surprisingly, Congress seems unlikely to act.  Cutting the tax only to reinstate it in September, about nine weeks before the midterms, won’t be attractive to any incumbent facing election.
    • It’s not just high crude oil prices that have boosted gasoline prices; high corn prices have also boosted ethanol costs..
    • When an oil well is drilled, it is unusual to completely drain all the available hydrocarbons. Most of the oil is tapped through natural pressure.  As pressures fall, oil companies have various techniques to further pull oil out of the ground.  Water and carbon dioxide injections are commonly used to “enhance” production.  Even shale oil is, in a sense, derived from a technique to further wring oil out of existing fields.  Now, oil companies are “re-fracking” existing frack wells to pull out more oil.  This process has lower costs, in part, because all the well infrastructure is in place.
  • The Dallas FRB has released its Q2 survey of oil and gas firms in its district. The key takeaway—94% of firms report they are suffering from supply chain issues, and nearly 70% don’t see them getting resolved in less than a year.  The biggest shortages are in equipment and personnel.
  • The DOE estimates the global excess capacity for crude oil is below four mbpd. French President Macron says that the leaders of the UAE and KSA have told him their ability to expand production is severely limited.  Javier Blas of Bloomberg examines the notion that Saudi Aramco (2222, SAR, 39.20) can actually sustain production at 12.0 mbpd.  The level hasn’t been tested in a while, and, quietly, some officials suggest this number may represent a temporary peak, but it’s not a sustainable level.
  • The European Parliament is considering a plan that would obligate EU nations to fill their natural gas storage to a level of 80% by winter. As supply turmoil continues, various EU nations are calling on European consumers to reduce consumption now to allow for a supply replenishment.
  • Although the public usually believes “oil is oil,” in reality, there are differences. In general, oil is either heavy or light, sour or sweet.  The first group refers to viscosity; some oil flows easily (shale oil, for example) while others are thick (Canadian tar sands, Venezuelan Orinoco).  The second group refers to sulfur contents.  Refineries tend to specialize in these differences.  A refinery constructed to refine sweet/light won’t easily be able to process sour/heavy.  Over the past 20 years, U.S. refineries increasingly invested in the ability to process heavy/sour crude oil on the idea that as production dwindled, the most plentiful oil would be of that grade.  Shale oil upended that forecast, which is why the U.S. mainly exports shale oil and imports heavy/sour crude.  The SPR has both types, but in the most recent release, the government has primarily been selling the heavier/sour grades, which U.S. refineries can process most efficiently.  It is estimated that at the end of October, when this phase of the SPR release ends, the U.S. will only have 179 mb of the heavier/sour crude oilThis will make the SPR a much less effective price buffer going forward.

 Geopolitical news:

  • The G-7 is meeting this week to discuss the Ukraine situation and the energy crisis. As we note below, the climate change agenda has clearly taken a back seat to trying to avoid an energy crisis.  The G-7 has made this switch abundantly clear.  The group admits fostering new investment in oil, gas, and coal may be necessary.
  • Although the EU continues to try to revive the Iran nuclear deal, we still contend the odds of success are nil. Still, our take isn’t curbing the desire of the EU to make a deal.  To some extent, the Biden administration seemed to want this, too, although we have doubted the president really wants to use political capital for this mission.  We note Special Envoy Robert Malley is traveling to Qatar to engage in backchannel discussions with Tehran. The main sticking points remain.  Iran wants guarantees that a future administration will not renege on this arrangement (which is not possible as an administration cannot easily bind a future one), and Iran wants the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps removed from the U.S. designation as a Foreign Terrorist organization (which would be politically costly for the Biden administration).
  • Meanwhile, there are increasing worries that Israel, backed by its new partners in the Abraham Accords, may attack Iran’s nuclear facilities. Israel successfully destroyed nuclear facilities in Iraq and Syria, but the hardened facilities in Iran were thought to be strong enough to prevent Israel from successfully doing the same.  However, that was before Israel was allied with the Persian Gulf states.  Earlier assessments assumed Israeli warplanes would fly from Israel across semi-hostile territory to strike Iran.  The length of the trip would limit the number of sorties and reduce the chances of success, but if Israel’s warplanes could use bases in the Persian Gulf states, it is likely there would be multiple days, if not weeks, of air operations.  Of course, if the Persian Gulf states cooperated with Israel, it would open them up to Iranian retaliation.  So far, energy markets are mostly ignoring this risk.  Given the political risks that President Biden is taking by traveling to the region, we suspect that the war situation may be the reason for the visit.
  • South America is facing turmoil caused by the energy situation:

 Alternative energy/policy news:

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[1] Strictly speaking, the BIRC isn’t a formal organization, so it isn’t obvious how one “applies.”

Daily Comment (June 29, 2022)

by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash

[Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF

Our Comment today opens with an update on the Russia-Ukraine war.  We next review other international and U.S. developments with the potential to affect the financial markets today.  We wrap up with the latest news on the coronavirus pandemic.

Note:  Because COVID-19 has become more endemic and in most countries isn’t disrupting the economy or politics as much as it did previously, we will drop our dedicated COVID-19 section beginning July 1.  We will continue to cover pandemic news as needed within our main text.

Russia-Ukraine:  As Russian forces slowly gain enough territory to threaten the last major concentration of Ukrainian forces in the eastern Donbas region, in and around the city of Lysychansk, reports indicate the Ukrainians have begun a fighting retreat designed to make the Russians pay dearly for any territory they seize.  Meanwhile, the Ukrainians continue to pin down Russian forces in the southern part of the country along the Black Sea coast.  Both sides continue to face steep losses of personnel and equipment, although it appears the Russians will ultimately have the more difficult time replacing them with combat-competent forces.

NATO Summit:  In one of the most important outcomes of the NATO summit so far, the Turkish government yesterday dropped its opposition to Sweden and Finland joining the alliance, clearing a path for the two Nordic countries to become members in the coming months.  The accession of Sweden and Finland will vastly expand NATO’s territory right up to the Russian border and transform the Baltic Sea into a virtual NATO lake, illustrating how badly President Putin’s invasion of Ukraine has backfired on him.

Eurozone:  In a speech this morning, ECB chief Lagarde is expected to provide more details on the central bank’s evolving “anti-fragmentation” program aimed at capping government bond spreads in the Eurozone as the ECB stops buying new assets.  As we mentioned in our Comment yesterday, the program would likely involve preferential ECB purchases of government bonds from Italy, Spain, Portugal, Greece, and other weaker Eurozone economies.

  • In an interview this week, Lagarde offered no new details on how the program would work, other than insisting it will be separate from the ECB’s main policy framework.
  • Even if Eurozone leaders can agree on such a program, we suspect it would essentially work at cross purposes with the ECB’s tightening policy.  We therefore think it would probably be negative for the euro.

United Kingdom:  Scottish leader Nicola Sturgeon announced plans aimed at holding a fresh referendum on independence in October 2023.  The new effort follows a failed referendum in 2014, which Prime Minister Johnson says is the last word on the matter.  The new effort reflects intense dissatisfaction with Brexit throughout Scotland and could create a sense of political uncertainty in the U.K., which would likely be a further headwind for its economy and financial markets.

  • Under the plan, the Scottish government has simultaneously asked Prime Minister Johnson to approve the referendum and requested that the U.K. Supreme Court decide whether it can proceed even without that approval.
  • If the court rules that the Scottish Parliament can’t proceed with a referendum without the British government’s permission, or if it declines to accept the case, then Sturgeon’s Scottish National Party would contest the next U.K.-wide elections on the question whether Scotland should be independent.

 China-United States:  According to a cybersecurity firm, a pro-Chinese government group called Dragonbridge has been impersonating environmental protectionists on social media to undermine the U.S.’s effort to build a domestic rare earths production capability.  Specifically, the group has been targeting a government-funded rare earths refinery being built in Texas that aims to cut U.S. reliance on Chinese rare earths.   The fake accounts argue that the facility would “expose the area to irreversible environmental damage” and “radioactive contamination.”

United States-Taiwan:  In another move by the Biden administration to blunt Chinese economic influence, Deputy U.S. Trade Representative and Taiwanese Minister John Deng this week held an initial round of talks aimed at boosting trade ties.  Since domestic politics in the U.S. preclude any consideration of traditional market-access provisions like tariff cuts, the talks merely center on trade facilitation, regulatory practices, agriculture, anti-corruption, small- and medium-sized enterprises, digital trade, labor, environment, standards, state-owned enterprises, and non-market policies and practices.

U.S. Monetary Policy:  In a Financial Times commentary today, bond guru Mohamed El-Erian warns that the Federal Reserve has become too reactive to economic developments, creating a risk of disruptive “stop-go” policymaking like that of the 1970s and 1980s.

  • El-Erian argues that a “well-informed Fed with a credible vision for the future” would minimize the risk of disruptive financial market overshoots, strengthen the potency of forward guidance on policy, and provide an anchor of stability that would foster productive physical investment.
  • In contrast, he argues that volatile, unpredictable policymaking that whipsaws between fighting inflation and boosting growth risks yet another round of undue economic damage, financial volatility, and greater inequality.
  • El-Erian also says that investors are right in worrying about a near-term recession in the U.S.  As we have written, we agree that there is an increasing risk of recession, most likely in 2023.

U.S. Labor Market:  Electric vehicle maker Tesla (TSLA, 697.99) announced it will lay off about 200 workers in conjunction with closing one of its California offices to cut costs.  The layoffs are tiny compared with the overall labor market, but since Tesla is such a high-profile company, the news is likely to raise concerns that the economy is slowing rapidly in response to factors like high labor and material costs and rising interest rates.

COVID-19:  Official data show confirmed cases have risen to  545,530,847 worldwide, with 6,332,788 deaths.  The countries currently reporting the highest rates of new infections include the U.S., Germany, Taiwan, and France.  (For an interactive chart that allows you to compare cases and deaths among countries, scaled by population, click here.)  In the U.S., confirmed cases have risen to 87,221,842, with 1,016,766 deaths.  In data on the U.S. vaccination program, the number of people considered fully vaccinated now totals 222,123,223 , equal to 66.9% of the total population.

Virology

  • In the U.S., the latest wave of infections appears to be topping out, but hospitalizations are still accelerating with their usual lag.  The seven-day average of newly reported cases stands at 108,963, up 3% from two weeks ago.  The seven-day average of people hospitalized with confirmed or suspected COVID-19 came in at 32,148 yesterday, up 7% from two weeks earlier.  New COVID-19 deaths are now averaging 377 per day, up 17% from two weeks earlier.
  • Separately, the Biden administration has warned Congress that the government could soon deplete its supply of a key antibody drug for treating nonhospitalized patients if pandemic funding isn’t renewed.  Should the federal government be unable to procure more doses, the drug’s manufacturer would need to sell the drug to hospitals and states directly for the treatment to remain available.
  • Following yesterday’s news that officials in mainland China are easing their pandemic quarantine rules, Hong Kong’s incoming health minister said his city is also looking to ease restrictions.  As we reported in conjunction with the mainland easing yesterday, easier restrictions could remove one of the headwinds facing the overall Chinese and Hong Kong economies, although they would remain vulnerable to strict new lockdowns in the future.

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Daily Comment (June 28, 2022)

by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash

[Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF

Our Comment opens with an update on the Russia-Ukraine war, including a discussion regarding the actions taken against Russia by leaders at the Group of Seven summit, which ended today.  We next review other international and U.S. developments with the potential to affect the financial markets today, including the latest comments by European Central Bank President Lagarde.  We wrap up with the latest news on the coronavirus pandemic.

Note:  Because COVID-19 has become more endemic and in most countries isn’t disrupting the economy or politics as much as it did previously, we will drop our dedicated COVID-19 section beginning July 1.  We will continue to cover pandemic news as needed within our main text.

Russia-Ukraine:  As Russian forces continue making slow, plodding progress in their effort to seize the eastern Ukrainian territory of Donbas, we have noted in recent days that they have also increased their broad, indiscriminate artillery and missile attacks on infrastructure and civilian targets throughout the country.  Those attacks, including a strike on a shopping mall that killed dozens of civilians, are probably designed to taunt and intimidate Western leaders meeting this week at the G7 and NATO summits.  Meanwhile, Russian military authorities continue to seek ways to replenish their increasingly exhausted force capabilities without announcing general mobilization. One U.S. defense official stated yesterday that Russian forces are likely running low on senior military leaders and are relying more heavily on retired officers and reserves to replace officer casualties.

North Atlantic Treaty Organization:  General Secretary Stoltenberg announced that a new “strategic concept” due to be approved by NATO leaders at their summit starting today would dramatically strengthen the alliance’s force structure to better protect it against Russian aggression.

  • Under the new plan, NATO’s quick-reaction force would expand seven-fold to 300,000 troops, which would be ready to deploy quickly to specific territories on the alliance’s eastern flank from the opening hours of any attack.
  • The plan would also increase permanent NATO deployments close to Russia, shifting their focus from deterring any invasion to a full defense of allied territory.

Eurozone Monetary Policy:  ECB President Lagarde ratcheted up her inflation-fighting rhetoric with a vow that the central bank will act in “a determined and sustained manner” to tackle surging prices in the eurozone, especially if there are signs of price expectations rising sharply among consumers and businesses.  While not abandoning her preference to tighten policy gradually, Lagarde stressed it is now important to have “optionality,” or the option to tighten policy more sharply if necessary.

  • Despite her stronger statements regarding the severity of inflation in the Eurozone and the policymakers’ determination to get prices under control, Lagarde also indicated she is sticking by her plan to boost the central bank’s benchmark interest rate by just 0.25% in July before a potentially bigger move in September.
  • The ECB also still plans to stop buying more bonds on Friday, which has boosted government bond yields for weaker economies like Italy relative to the yields for stronger countries like Germany.
    • The ECB has tried to limit those spreads with vague promises to develop a new “anti-fragmentation” program that would likely involve preferential ECB purchases of government bonds from Italy, Spain, Portugal, Greece, and other weaker Eurozone economies.
    • Lagarde offered no additional details on how the anti-fragmentation program would work other than insisting it would be separate from the ECB’s main policy framework.
    • Even if Eurozone leaders can agree on such an anti-fragmentation program, we suspect it would essentially work at cross purposes with the ECB’s tightening policy.  We, therefore, think it would probably be negative for the euro.

Australia:  While the world focused on the coronavirus, Australians have concentrated on a different pandemic, this time among their bees.  The country has managed to contain the varroa mite, a parasite that is wiping out bee colonies around the world, but a new variant discovered in the port of Newcastle has prompted a lockdown of bee colonies reminiscent of COVID-19 restrictions to preserve the bees’ availability to pollinate important food crops.

Emerging Market Currencies:  Many emerging market stocks and currencies held up relatively well in early 2022 when the Russia-Ukraine war and supply disruptions boosted commodity prices.  Some of those assets are now sliding sharply as investors focus on the negative impact of the strong dollar and rising interest rates.  The South African rand and the Brazilian real have fallen particularly hard this month.

U.S. Bond Market:  New data from the Municipal Securities Rulemaking Board indicates households held just 40% of outstanding municipal bonds in the first three months of the year, down from 46% in 2020.  Stripping out separately managed accounts, households only hold about 20% of all munis.  The data reveals that asset managers now hold the large majority of munis, potentially making the market more volatile than it was in the past.

COVID-19:  Official data show confirmed cases have risen to  544,555,638 worldwide, with 6,330,745 deaths.  The countries currently reporting the highest rates of new infections include the U.S., Taiwan, Germany, and France.  (For an interactive chart that allows you to compare cases and deaths among countries, scaled by population, click here.)  In the U.S., confirmed cases have risen to 87,092,384, with 1,016,208 deaths.  In data on the U.S. vaccination program, the number of people considered fully vaccinated now totals 222,123,223, equal to 66.9% of the total population.

  • In the U.S., the latest wave of infections appears to be topping out, but hospitalizations are still accelerating with their usual lag.  The seven-day average of newly reported cases stands at 108,215, up 1% from two weeks ago.  The seven-day average of people hospitalized with confirmed or suspected COVID-19 came in at 31,720 yesterday, up 6% from two weeks earlier.  New COVID-19 deaths are now averaging 333 per day, up 3% from two weeks earlier.
  • In China, officials today said they would shorten their mandatory quarantine period to 10 days from 21 days for both international travelers entering the country and residents who have come into close contact with COVID-19 patients.  In addition, they said they would ease testing requirements for people in quarantine.
    • By now, investors deeply understand that strict zero-COVID rules have become a drag on growth in the world’s second-largest economy and threaten further disruptions in global supply chains.
    • Because of that, news of the eased requirements has given a boost to equities and commodity prices so far this morning.  For example, Brent crude oil is currently trading up 1.9% to $113.02 per barrel.
    • All the same, we stress that President Xi remains committed to his strict pandemic policies, so there can be no guarantee that he won’t impose new, disruptive restrictions again, even if only small outbreaks occur in China.

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Daily Comment (June 27, 2022)

by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash

[Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF

Our Comment today opens with an update on the Russia-Ukraine war.  New sanctions are being discussed by Western leaders.  We next review other international and U.S. developments with the potential to affect the financial markets today, including multiple items relating to China.  We wrap up with the latest news on the coronavirus pandemic.

Note:  Because COVID-19 has become more endemic and in most countries isn’t disrupting the economy or politics as much as it did previously, we will drop our dedicated COVID-19 section beginning July 1.  We will continue to cover pandemic news as needed within our main text.

Russia-Ukraine:  As Russian forces continue to make slow, plodding progress in seizing territory in Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region, Ukrainian forces continue their increasingly successful counterattacks in southern Ukraine around the port city of Kherson.  Both countries face worsening shortages of personnel and equipment, and Russian President Putin continues to implement a “cover mobilization” to raise more troops.  According to reports, the Russian State Duma will consider a bill that would allow military officials to offer contracts to young men immediately upon “coming of age” or graduating high school.  It circumvents the need for conscripts to complete military service before being sent to fight in the war. On the Ukrainian side, Western leaders will discuss providing further, “sustained” military aid to the country at their summits this week.

  • Not only has Putin’s invasion backfired on him by making Ukraine a candidate for membership in the EU, but it has also hastened Ukraine’s integration into the EU economy.  As early as July, the EU will begin importing small amounts of electricity from Ukraine, with greater amounts expected in the future as power infrastructure is linked.  Since so many people have fled Ukraine because of the war, the country now has surplus generating capacity, even as many EU countries face a deficit.
  • U.S. and British officials indicated the Group of Seven summit this week would approve a broad ban on importing Russian gold, one of the country’s key commodity exports after energy.  The Russian central bank reportedly holds some 2,000 metric tons of the metal, worth approximately $140 billion.  Russia has exported tens of billions of dollars of gold to G7 countries in recent years (especially to the U.K.).  The officials are also considering imposing a price cap on Russian oil exports and new tariffs on other Russian goods.
    • The ban on Russian gold can be seen as the logical corollary of the Western countries’ freeze on Russian reserve assets.  Indeed, it appears an informal ban on Russian gold has already been in place.  The weekend announcement was notable for making it public.
    • In the immediate term, the ban could give a modest boost to gold prices.  So far this morning, gold is trading up about 0.4% to $1,837.00.  In the longer term, however, prices could reverse and even go lower.  For one thing, Russia has proven adept at getting its commodities to market, despite Western sanctions, by leveraging their fungibility and the willingness of China, India, and other countries to deal with them.  For another, the G7 action will likely reduce the attractiveness of holding gold and therefore lead to lower demand.  In each case, at least some Western officials probably understand the difficulty in making such sanctions truly painful for Russia, but that concern is probably outweighed by the need to make a political statement against the invasion.
  • The G7 nations are also considering a change to their bans on Russian oil imports.  To stop Russia from earning high prices by exporting oil to non-sanctioning countries, the G7 is looking at allowing Western shipping, insurance, and other financial services firms to deal with Russian oil exports as long as the importer observes a price cap.  Besides cutting Russian oil revenues, the goal would be to bring down global oil prices.  All the same, Brent crude is trading 0.7% higher so far this morning, at $109.89 per barrel.
  • Reflecting the impact of the West’s previous sanctions, Russia yesterday defaulted on its sovereign foreign debt for the first time in over a century.  Moscow has set up a mechanism to deposit rubles in special bank accounts for the benefit of bondholders that doesn’t appear to match the $100 million or so of dollar and euro payments required to be paid by yesterday under the bond documents.

G7 Summit:  Besides the ban on Russian gold imports mentioned above, the G7 leaders announced a new “Partnership for Global Infrastructure and Investment” program that will jointly provide $600 billion for infrastructure investments in less-developed countries by 2025 to counter China’s Belt and Road Initiative.  Relying on both public and private funds, the program will finance investments in projects such as climate resilience, secure information and communications technology, gender equity, and modernizing health systems, including vaccine manufacturing facilities.

Global Monetary Policy:  In its annual report, the Bank for International Settlements warned that global central banks must raise interest rates sharply, even if it significantly hurts growth.  Otherwise, the “central banks’ central bank” said the world risks a 1970s-style inflationary spiral.  While central banks like the Federal Reserve are clearly behind the curve in fighting inflation, the BIS warning could help push the policymakers into tightening monetary policy so quickly that they produce a recession, most likely sometime in 2023.

Chinese Economy:  New reports indicate small and medium-sized businesses throughout China are drastically cutting their hiring plans in response to the country’s draconian pandemic lockdowns, rising costs, and waning orders from overseas.  Some firms have even been cutting wage rates and laying off workers.

  • The development will make it even harder for officials to meet their official goal of 5.5% economic growth this year.
  • The slowdown also increases the chance that officials will resort to their traditional strategy to boost growth: a debt-funded public investment that will further exacerbate China’s high debt levels.

Chinese Politics:  Ahead of the Chinese Communist Party’s 20th National Congress this fall, where President Xi will try to win a groundbreaking third term in power, at least nine provincial party chiefs have published fawning articles extolling the president and pledging loyalty to him.  The articles have even used over-the-top reverential terms for Xi that have rarely been used since Mao’s cult of personality decades ago.

  • The articles have generally coincided with this month’s provincial party congresses, where delegates to the national congress are being confirmed.
  • The articles reflect the provincial chiefs’ jockeying for plum positions at the autumn congress, but they alone indicate widespread certainty that Xi will secure his third term at the meeting, further enhancing his power and setting him up to be president for life.

Japan:  Amid a blistering heat wave, the government today called on businesses and the public in the Tokyo area to cut electricity use, saying a lack of generating capacity risked plunging the capital into a power blackout.  If prolonged, any resulting power outages could be a headwind for Japanese economic growth.

China-United States-Japan, et al.:  Alarmed by China’s effort to court the island nations of the western Pacific Ocean, the U.S. and several key allies have launched a new initiative to bolster and coordinate their engagement with those nations.  The “Partners in the Blue Pacific” initiative encompasses the U.S., Japan, Britain, Australia, and New Zealand and is designed to blunt Chinese overtures to nations in the region, such as the new pact potentially allowing China to send military forces to the Solomon Islands.

United States-Israel-Saudi Arabia-Egypt-Iran:  New reporting shows top military officials from the U.S., Israel, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and other Middle Eastern states met in March to discuss how they could defend against Iran’s growing missile and drone threats.  As the U.S. seeks to step back from its role as the guarantor of Middle Eastern security to focus on threats from China and Russia, the report suggests it is seeking to install Israel in its place, at least in terms of air defense.

  • At the March talks, the participants reached an agreement in principle on procedures for rapid notification when aerial threats are detected.  The officials also discussed how decisions might be made on which nation’s forces would intercept aerial threats.  However, top national leaders need to approve the evolving “Middle East Air Defense Alliance,” which may be helped along when President Biden visits Saudi Arabia and Israel in mid-July.
  • Even though the new initiative appears to be in its early stages, other recent events suggest Israel may be preparing to attack Iran’s nuclear weapons facilities as that country gets ever closer to having a workable bomb, just as it took out Iraq’s nuclear reactor in 1981 and Syria’s in 2007.  Any such attack would likely spark a global crisis that would push oil prices dramatically higher and cause a steep decline in economic activity.
    • Israeli Prime Minister Bennett has recently referred to a new “Octopus Doctrine,” relating to Iran, saying, “We no longer play with the tentacles, with Iran’s proxies: We’ve created a new equation by going for the head.”
    • In recent weeks, Israel has also carried out several targeted assassinations in Iran itself, taking out top Iranian military operatives as well as nuclear scientists. It is not the first time that Israel has taken out high-level targets inside Iran, but the increase in strikes suggests a shift.
    • Israel has also recently stepped up its military exercises designed to increase its readiness and prepare for a conflict that would involve long-range air attacks on its enemies.  Israeli media report a May exercise was explicitly designed to practice a long-range attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities.
    • Other Israeli media reporting says the country’s air force can now fly F-35 fighter jets from Israel to Iran without refueling.  Those jets can also be equipped with a new one-ton bomb “that can be carried inside the plane’s internal weapons compartment without jeopardizing its stealth radar signature.”

U.S. Housing Market:  Reflecting the difficulty in buying a house amid today’s hot home market and rising interest rates, people trying to rent are now getting into bidding wars.  That could help push up rental housing costs in the consumer price index and worsen or prolong today’s high inflation rate.

U.S. Regulatory Policy:  While Friday’s Supreme Court decision voiding Roe v. Wade and its recognition of a constitutional right to abortion continue to generate intense debate, we suspect it won’t have any immediate, broad impact on the economy or financial markets (our key focus).  However, it probably puts particular companies at risk of legal or political blowback, depending in large part on their public statements regarding the issue and their healthcare benefit policies.

  • In the coming months, the key issue for investors may be whether the decision will energize left-leaning abortion rights voters enough to limit the Democratic Party’s expected losses in the Congressional elections in November.
  • In the longer term, it will also be interesting to see whether overturning Roe v. Wade saps or bolsters the political energy of right-leaning cultural conservatives.  On the one hand, the decision satisfies a longstanding goal of those voters, even if decisions on implementing or expanding abortion restrictions will now move to many state legislatures.  On the other hand, right-wing elite politicians may try to capitalize on the victory by doubling down on other social issues important to populists, such as gun rights or history teaching in schools.

COVID-19:  Official data show confirmed cases have risen to  543,646,378 worldwide, with 6,329,214 deaths.  The countries currently reporting the highest rates of new infections include the U.S., Taiwan, Germany, and Brazil.  (For an interactive chart that allows you to compare cases and deaths among countries, scaled by population, click here.)  In the U.S., confirmed cases have risen to 86,967,639, with 1,015,938 deaths.  In data on the U.S. vaccination program, the number of people considered fully vaccinated now totals 222,123,223, equal to 66.9% of the total population.

  • In the U.S., the latest wave of infections appears to be topping out, but hospitalizations are still accelerating with their usual lag.  The seven-day average of newly reported cases stands at 102,818, unchanged from two weeks ago.  The seven-day average of people hospitalized with confirmed or suspected COVID-19 came in at 31,650 yesterday, up 7% from two weeks earlier.  New COVID-19 deaths are now averaging 348 per day, up 5% from two weeks earlier.
  • In China, the electronics manufacturing powerhouse of Shenzhen has partially locked down a district bordering Hong Kong after almost a dozen local cases were discovered there over the weekend.  Illustrating how President Xi’s zero-COVID policy continues to disrupt the economy, the Shenzhen shutdown applies to businesses like wholesale markets, bars, cinemas, gyms, parks, and some bus and subway services.
    • Under the new rules, anyone wanting to use public transport or enter public venues in Shenzhen must show a negative COVID test taken within the previous 24 hours—literally once a day.
    • The daily test requirement has reportedly helped the city government avoid a more extensive lockdown, but we suspect it will still crimp economic activity in the region, further weighing on Chinese growth and global demand.

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Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – The Selling of Austerity (June 27, 2022)

by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF

Politics is the art of the possible…

Otto Von Bismarck

Although there have been attempts to treat it as a science (hence the study of political science), the necessary art of politics is to convince people to accept policies that may be contrary to their best interest.  This quote sums up the problem succinctly.

We all know what to do, but we don’t know how to get re-elected once we have done it.

Jean-Claude Juncker

Policy actions are sold.  Merely telling the public that a difficult policy mix is necessary doesn’t work very well.  So, policymakers create narratives to justify and explain why something difficult won’t be all that bad or won’t affect anyone you know.  For example, higher taxes on upper-income households are packaged as “paying one’s fair share.”  Windfall profit taxes are there to “share the pain.”

The Federal Reserve faces a similar problem.  Merely indicating that policy needs to be tightened is unpopular.  So, major policy changes must be couched in a manner that the public will accept.  Alan Greenspan realized that monetary policy could reduce equity prices; in 1996, he hinted, with the term “irrational exuberance,” that equity prices were too strong relative to earnings.  The blowback was severe enough that he never mentioned it again.  Federal Reserve policy on this topic is that market bubbles cannot be determined in real-time, and if one occurs, it is easier to address the damage afterward.[1]

Another example is Paul Volcker’s shift to money supply targeting from interest rate targeting.  Money supply targeting allowed the Fed to raise rates to unprecedented levels.  Targeting a 19.1% fed funds rate (for the record, in June 1981) would have been impossible politically.  But having that rate occur “naturally” by constraining the money supply led to the necessary outcome in a politically possible manner.

We may be seeing the Powell Fed attempting something similar.  Although the Philips Curve has been mostly disavowed by the Fed, in reality, the spirit of the relationship remains; to contain inflation, the Fed has to slow the economy down enough to create slack in the economy.  In simple terms, it means the Fed must create unemployment to bring inflation down.  Even under conditions of low unemployment, such a policy is politically unpalatable.

So, both Chair Powell and Governor Waller have suggested that instead of raising unemployment, it may be possible to reduce the “froth” in the labor markets by decreasing the number of job openings.  That idea is tied to a concept called the “Beveridge Curve.”

The Beveridge Curve looks at the relationship between job openings and unemployment.  This curve attempts to show the efficiency between job openings and filling those openings.  In general, moving away from the origin suggests less efficiency.  The slope of the curve is also important.  A flatter slope suggests greater efficiency because it takes relatively fewer job openings to lower unemployment.  We have created curves for the last four business cycles, starting in 1994.  After the 2001 recession, the efficiency of the labor market improved as the curve moved toward the origin.  Although, the slope did steepen.  In the expansion of 2009 through 2020, efficiency fell.  That was offset partially by a flatter slope.

The points in the box show the end of the last expansion.  Note how the slope essentially steepened.  As job openings rose, it became harder to fill them.  And then the pandemic hit.  The current curve has steepened dramatically; the most recent data point is shown with an arrow.  Essentially, the Powell/Waller position is that wage pressures could ease if openings fell back to the slope of the green line running from 2020 into early 2021.  In other words, we could see slack develop without a significant rise in the unemployment rate.  Waller argues that if hiring efficiency improves, we might be able to ease inflation pressures without a recession.

This chart is another way of looking at the data.  It measures the number of unemployed to the number of job openings.  Note that from 2018 to 2020, openings briefly exceeded the unemployed; at that time, the Beveridge curve slope started to steepen.  Pre-pandemic, the difference between the above chart and wage growth for non-supervisory workers does show a +70% positive correlation with the difference leading wage growth by about a year.  So, if job openings decline, over time, it should ease wage pressures.

However, the pandemic has upended the job market to some extent.  This event led to an increase in older workers leaving the workforce; so far, robust wages have not been enough to draw them back into the labor force.  It seems more likely that bringing down job openings will probably require some rise in unemployment.  But by focusing on job openings instead of increasing unemployment, the FOMC may buy some degree of political cover to weaken the labor market.

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[1] This is similar to Bob Uecker’s advice on how to catch a knuckleball…” wait until it stops rolling and pick it up.”

Daily Comment (June 24, 2022)

by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash

[Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF

Good morning. Today’s Comment starts with an overview of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony to the House Financial Services Committee. Next, we provide an update on the latest developments regarding the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Afterward, we briefly discuss the rise in home prices, commodity-related news, and the ECB’s reluctance to use its new bond purchasing tool. We conclude with our daily COVID-19 coverage.

Note:  Because COVID-19 has become more endemic and in most countries isn’t disrupting the economy or politics as much as it did previously, we will drop our dedicated COVID-19 section beginning July 1.  We will continue to cover pandemic news as needed within our main text.

Jerome Speaks: Fed Chair Jerome Powell testified for the second day on Capitol Hill. Powell reiterated his testimony that his commitment to fighting inflation is “unconditional.” He added the Fed would be reluctant to cut interest rates unless there was clear evidence that inflation was coming down. The current Fed projection shows that the central bank expects to raise rates between 3.25% to 3.50% by the end of 2022. The Federal Reserve benchmark rate is currently between 1.5% and 1.75%. Powell’s hawkish tone has contributed to concerns the Fed will not be able to achieve a soft landing.  U.S. bond prices rallied as fears over a recession led to a flight to safety into safe-haven assets. The U.S. 10-year Treasury has dropped over 20 bps since Tuesday; investors are pricing in the possibility of a recession. Meanwhile, there was a notable shift in equities toward defensive stocks.

Russia-Ukraine update: Russian forces continue to advance throughout eastern Ukraine, but Moscow is still looking for help from its allies. On Thursday, Ukrainian officials announced its troops in Severodonetsk would retreat, and soldiers in Lysychansk also expect orders to withdraw. Ukraine does not believe its military has enough forces to maintain the regions and will probably shift troops to other areas. The outcome is a symbolic victory for Russia, as it now has significant control over the Donbas. Moscow will probably ask that Ukraine cede the region as a requirement for any peace deal. This arrangement will likely be a nonstarter for President Zelensky, who has vowed not to give up any land to Russia. That being said, Ukraine’s ability to stay in the war depends on the weapons it receives from the West. The U.S. announced Thursday that it would provide Ukraine with an additional $450 million in military aid and advanced weaponry. The extra support will help Ukraine maintain its fight against Russia.

Despite its new gains, Russia would like help from Belarus because it is running low on troops and supplies. Belarusian forces have started military exercises along the Ukrainian border. The activities appear to be an intimidation tactic, but Ukrainian officials have warned the exercises could provoke a conflict. Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko does not have the political support to intervene in the war. A survey found that only 11 percent of Belarusians support their country getting involved in the war in Ukraine. Besides the lack of support, there is uncertainty regarding whether Belarus will significantly affect the conflict. As a result, Belarus is unlikely to get involved in the conflict, making it harder for Russia to sustain its current momentum.

  • President Biden will meet with G-7 leaders on Sunday to discuss plans to deter Russia from its invasion of Ukraine. The leaders will discuss possible ways to limit Russian oil revenue and work for President Biden’s new government following the midterm elections. The next Congress will be less inclined to provide Ukraine with the same level of support.

Rising home prices: Elevated prices and rising mortgage rates have made homes less affordable for many potential homebuyers. According to John Burns Real Estate Consulting, the cost of owning a home has now surpassed the cost to rent. However, the increase in the price of homes is due to demand far outpacing supply. The lack of materials and labor supply has made it difficult to finish projects. As a result, for the first time in at least 30 years, the number of homes completed exceeds that of homes under construction.

The lack of inventory has supported home prices; however, research suggests this trend will not hold for some cities. Chief Economist Mark Zandi from Moody’s Analytics projects home prices in overvalued markets will fall over the next few months. This cooling has already shown up throughout the Sun Belt. Despite the possibility of a decline in home prices, Zandi does not believe the housing market will collapse. A drop in residential prices will affect consumer confidence, as most households derive their wealth from home values. We suspect a slowdown in housing will lead to lower levels of consumption and could add to recession fears

Commodities: Nuclear energy is making a comeback in the West. A push for cleaner energy sources and Western countries’ desire to reduce their dependence on autocratic governments for fossil fuels has led governments to reconsider nuclear energy. The U.S. and France have already started working on developing nuclear reactors, while Germany is considering pausing its plan to close its three remaining plants. This shift toward nuclear will probably relieve some of the demand pressure for natural gas. Countries are struggling to expand their nuclear capacity because of a lack of knowledge and labor. We suspect nuclear energy will probably be a target for future investment as it is one of the most convenient options for countries looking to use clean energy.

  • China has purchased less LNG from the U.S. because it can get better prices from Russia. As a result, U.S. natural gas providers have made up for the lack of sales to China by selling energy to Europe. The shifting trade relationship further supports our thesis that the world is breaking into regional blocks. We suspect this trend will continue as the U.S. and China decouple.
  • Brazil is running out of space to store much of its corn and soybeans. The lack of storage could place inflationary pressure on food prices if the problem persists. However, news of a strong harvest in Brazil has led to a drop in corn and soybean prices.

European Central Bank: The ECB is reluctant to implement its bond-purchasing program tool as it is not sure how it will thread the needle of being transparent enough to avoid legal challenges while still being ambiguous enough to prevent speculation. The tool was designed to avert financial fragmentation as the central bank starts its tightening cycle. It will effectively prevent the spread of bond yields among Euro members by purchasing bonds from vulnerable countries like Italy. So far, the market has responded well to hearing the news that the ECB will intervene, but it isn’t clear how long they can maintain this charade without actual policy action. Banks within the Eurozone region will be sensitive to this policy shift, and thus, we recommend investing with caution.

COVID-19: Official data show confirmed cases have risen to 541,972,784 worldwide, with 6,325,883 deaths. The countries currently reporting the highest rates of new infections include the U.S., Taiwan, Germany, and Brazil. (For an interactive chart that allows you to compare cases and deaths among countries, scaled by population, click here.) In the U.S., confirmed cases have risen to 86,757,627, with 1,015,342 deaths. In data on the U.S. vaccination program, the number of people considered fully vaccinated now totals 222,123,223, equal to 66.9% of the total population.

  • The U.K. is seeing a surge in COVID-19 cases. As of last week, 1.7 million people have contracted the virus. The recent rise in cases is related to the mutation of the Omicron virus. Despite the increase, infections remain below the all-time highs seen in March.

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Weekly Energy Update (June 24, 2022)

by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF

Crude oil prices continue to rise in an orderly fashion.

(Source: Barchart.com)

Crude oil inventories rose 2.0 mb compared to a 2.0 mb draw forecast.  The SPR declined 7.7 mb, meaning the net draw was 5.8 mb.

In the details, U.S. crude oil production rose from 0.1 mbpd to 12.0 mbpd.  Exports rose 1.5 mbpd, while imports rose 0.8 mbpd.  Refining activity fell 0.5% to 93.7% of capacity.

(Sources: DOE, CIM)

The above chart shows the seasonal pattern for crude oil inventories.  This week’s report is consistent with the average pattern.  Note the average pattern shows declines into September.

Since the SPR is being used, to some extent, as a buffer stock, we have constructed oil inventory charts incorporating both the SPR and commercial inventories.

Total stockpiles peaked in 2017 and are now at levels seen in 2005.  Using total stocks since 2015, fair value is $97.79.

With so many crosscurrents in the oil markets, we see some degree of normalization.  The inventory/EUR model suggests oil prices should be around $65 per barrel, so we are seeing about $50 of risk premium in the market.

Market news:

  • Want a well-crafted primer on why the oil industry is struggling to lift production in the face of high prices? Check out this Odd Lots Podcast, as Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway interview Peter Tertzakian about the hurdles in place that are preventing a greater expansion of output.  The interview makes it perfectly clear that supply problems will be with us for a long time.
  • Last week, the IEA warned that global supplies for oil will likely be tight through 2023. Perhaps the biggest issue facing oil markets is that OPEC+ may be close to producing at capacity.  Capacity numbers in OPEC+ are a mixed bag. Throughout history they have usually been inflated because the cartel used capacity data to allocate production quotas.  The higher a nation’s capacity, the more they were allowed to produce.  OPEC+ is expected to allow producers to expand output to pre-pandemic levels in August, but capacity has fallen since then.  By August, it appears only the KSA and UAE will have available capacity, perhaps about 1.6 mbpd.  However, these producers may decide it is unwise to lift output further.  For most of the oil market’s history, there has been a cartel body limiting production.  This situation has led to prices higher than would have existed in a fully free market but with less volatility due to the supply buffer.  If OPEC+ uses up all its capacity, the only buffers will be strategic reserves, which are already being used.
  • A couple of weeks ago, a fire at a U.S. LNG facility cut U.S. exports by up to 20%. Although initial reports suggested there would be a three-week outage, it now looks like full throughput won’t return until at least September.  Shortly after this news, Russia announced that gas flows to the EU would be curtailed due to the lack of repair parts, allegedly caused by sanctions.  Several European sources confirm that supplies have been reduced.  In addition, rising temperatures are boosting natural gas demand, making it difficult to build storage.
  • The EU has increased sanctions on ensuring Russian oil and gas shipments. The U.S. is becoming increasingly concerned that this measure may be too effective, reducing supplies further.  Insurance companies may not have the capital to bear the risk of sanctions, meaning shipments may simply not occur.  The Treasury is trying to “thread the needle” of ensuring adequate oil supplies while preventing Russia from benefiting.  That outcome may not be possible.
  • As high energy prices weigh on the political fortunes of the party in power, the administration is scrambling to determine ways to reduce energy costs. The Secretary of Energy met yesterday with energy executives.  A gasoline tax holiday has been proposed. Also under consideration are fuel export limits, although such measures would be a foreign policy disaster as they would force the EU and other global consumers to bear higher costs.
    • Relations between the administration and the energy sector are at a low state. The petroleum industry wants regulatory relief.  Environmentalists have been quite successful in blocking pipeline projects, in particular.  The industry wants the processes for building pipelines changed to reduce the ability of the courts to prevent expanding pipelines and other facilities.  Unfortunately, for the president, the environmental wing of the party understands that, due to the marginal cost structure of such facilities, once built, they will be used for decades.[1]  So far, the White House is trying to reduce gasoline prices by badgering the industry, most likely because it has concluded that blaming the industry is better politically than disappointing the environmental wing.
    • One oddity of the current oil market is that while U.S. refining capacity is running above 90%, China is sitting on lots of unused capacity. China manages its refineries primarily for domestic supply.  With the Chinese economy sluggish, product demand has been soft.  So far, China hasn’t shown much interest in lifting product exports.
    • U.S. gasoline prices have eased modestly, just before the July 4 weekend.

 Geopolitical news:

(Source:  Bloomberg)

This chart shows the nearest contract for the Brent/Urals spread.  Before the war, Brent enjoyed roughly a $2 premium on Urals.  It is now around $35 per barrel and, so far, has shown little evidence of narrowing.  In general, if more buyers are able to purchase the cheaper Urals product, one would expect the price to rise, narrowing the spread.  Although we know India and China have been buyers of Russian oil, there still isn’t much evidence to suggest other buyers are participating.  In other words, we know sanctions are being violated, but for now, the degree of violation hasn’t been enough to bring lower oil prices.

Alternative energy/policy news:

  • The FAA has announced new emission rules on commercial aircraft.
  • The U.S. and several other nations have entered an agreement designed to secure critical minerals for the energy transition.
  • If wind and solar power are going to replace fossil fuels, the issue of energy storage is critical. Currently, these renewables require fossil fuel or nuclear backup capacity, requiring redundant investment.  It is becoming clear that lithium-ion batteries are probably not the best solution for this need; this report discusses other metals and batteries being tested for this role.
  • Environmental groups have used the courts to create environmental standards. That avenue is under threat from a group of state AGs.  As the U.S. pulls back from its hegemonic role, Congress may move to gain power over the regulatory apparatus.
  • The problem of sourcing key metals for batteries has created a global scramble to find supplies. One answer could be recycling; Toyota (TM, USD, 156.80) announced a partnership designed to recycle batteries from its cars.
  • The oil and gas industry is teaming up with the geothermal industry in what could prove to be an important expansion of the latter industry using the technology of the former.
  • Although the Texas-Louisiana region is a key oil and gas producing region, it will likely also become an important hub for hydrogen.

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[1] The initial costs are high, but the marginal costs are low, meaning that once built, the throughput is cheap.

Daily Comment (June 23, 2022)

by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash

[Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF

Today’s Comment begins with coverage of Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony to the Senate Banking Committee. Next, we review the latest updates on the Russia-Ukraine war. We continue the report with a discussion about U.S. gas prices, China’s crackdown on tech, and a potential slowdown in the European economy. Lastly, we end the report with our daily COVID-19 coverage.

Note:  Because COVID-19 has become more endemic and in most countries isn’t disrupting the economy or politics as much as it did previously, we will drop our dedicated COVID-19 section beginning July 1.  We will continue to cover pandemic news as needed within our main text.

Jerome Speaks to the Senate: Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged that a recession might be possible. This acknowledgment was the first time the central bank head conceded that rate hikes could lead to an economic downturn. He explained that although the economy can withstand monetary tightening, outside factors such as the war in Ukraine and China’s Zero-COVID policy make it more difficult for the central bank to achieve a soft landing. Despite the negative outlook, the Fed chair’s comment was less hawkish than investors feared. Powell neglected to mention anything about the size of future hikes leading investors to believe that in future meetings, the Fed will consider the impact that hikes will have on the economy. His comments led to an initial rally in equities and bond prices that was later pared back before the market closed on Wednesday. Jerome Powell is set to return to Capitol Hill on Thursday for the second day of testimony, where he will likely face more questions about the direction of Fed policy.

  • Chicago and Philadelphia Fed Presidents Charles Evans and Patrick Harker signaled they would be open to supporting a 75bps rate hike in July if inflation remains elevated. Their comments suggest the central bank could have another big hike in July. However, both Fed officials also expressed the possibility of a pause in rate hikes by 2023. Evans stated the Fed should raise rates above three percent by the end of the year, then reassess, while Harker noted the use of quantitative tightening could make raising past three percent unnecessary. Their comments could be favorable to risk assets that have been negatively impacted by rate uncertainty.
  • The job market may be cooling. Data collected by Indeed shows that job listings are starting to stagnate. Nevertheless, there are still more vacancies than the number of workers available, suggesting that the Federal Reserve may be achieving some success in relieving the demand pressures for firms.

Russia-Ukraine: Moscow continues to succeed in eastern Ukraine as Russian forces look to take over Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts. Russian troops are closing in on Lysychansk, the last major Ukrainian-controlled city in Luhansk. Ukrainian troops are prepared to defend the city, as the country remains committed to fighting a war of attrition. Meanwhile, Russia’s anti-defense missile systems have decreased the effectiveness of Ukrainian drones. Using Turkish drones was a key to Ukraine’s early military success. However, recent failures have forced Ukrainian forces to switch tactics. Despite Russia’s advances, there is growing speculation that its momentum could slow because of a lack of resources and troops.

  • Russian oil cargoes are becoming hard to track in the Atlantic Ocean. Over the last few days, at least three tankers have disappeared from the vessel-tracking system as they enter the Azores. Although it is not clear why the ships have vanished, it is suspected that the vessels went dark to conceal the prospective buyers of the oil, keeping them private to avoid sanction penalties. Other countries hit with sanctions, such as Venezuela and Iran, have also gone dark for similar reasons. The sale of Russian oil on these vessels will probably relieve some demand pressure but could also extend the war in Ukraine.
  • Moscow could cut gas from Europe altogether, the head of the International Energy Agency warned. He stated Russia could make up excuses about technical difficulties to justify not supplying gas to Europe. Germany is already considering rationing its gas to consumers and businesses to rebuild its inventory for the winter months. Europe has growing concerns that the gas crisis could lead to a collapse in energy markets. Energy suppliers have been forced to take huge losses. As a result, there is a possibility that the effects could spill over to local utilities.  Germany is the most vulnerable to the rise in costs, and we suspect it will become bolder in its push for Ukraine to agree to a ceasefire. European power prices surged to their highest level since December, and prices will likely get worse.
  • Russian forces have targeted wheat terminals as Moscow looks to hurt Ukraine’s ability to export food. On Wednesday, it hit two North American-owned terminals with missile strikes. Russia’s targeting of Ukraine wheat exports adds to concern that there could be a global food crisis this year.
  • Lithuania is preparing for Russia to cut it off from the regional power grid. Moscow threatened retaliation after Lithuania blocked shipments of Russian goods to Kaliningrad. Unlike other European countries, Lithuania does not depend on Russia for its energy needs; thus, it has more flexibility to stand up to Moscow.

U.S. Gas Prices: Rising gas prices have weighed on demand as drivers have changed their consumption habits. According to energy-data provider OPIS, gas stations have declined annual sales for the 14th consecutive week. Consumers likely need this demand destruction to bring prices back into equilibrium with the supply level. Meanwhile, oil refiners are expected to meet with President Biden to discourage him from placing restrictions on exports. The Biden administration is looking at limiting the overseas sales of domestically produced oil to bring down gas prices. If the administration does ban exported oil, it will bring down fuel prices domestically but increase prices abroad.

  • The rate to deliver fuel by sea has more than doubled this year to the highest level since April 2020, according to the Baltic Exchange. The increase in price is due to the war in Ukraine forcing some shippers to alter their trade routes. The rise in shipping costs might lead to an increase in inflation, as firms will look to push those costs onto consumers.

China Crackdown: Authorities in China appear to be shifting their focus away from fintech and toward online pharmaceuticals.  On Thursday, Beijing approved a plan to allow online financial platforms’ “healthy” development. This change indicates the investigation into financial firms like ANT could end soon, and regulators are considering banning third-party platforms from selling medication online.

  • China expects to miss its growth target of 5.5% for the year. A weakening property market and the Zero-COVID policy have made it difficult for the country to expand.

 European Economy: Higher energy and food prices have started to slow economic activity in Europe as consumers have reduced their demand for other goods and services. The latest index from S&P Global shows that purchasing managers are reporting a decline in manufacturing output for the first time in two years. Additionally, the S&P Global composite PMI index, which tracks manufacturing and service activity, decreased from 54.8 in May to 51.9 in June. The reduction in output highlights the challenges Europe faces due to the war in Ukraine and raises the likelihood of a possible downturn.

COVID-19: Official data show confirmed cases have risen to 541,441,499 worldwide, with 6,324,412 deaths. The countries currently reporting the highest rates of new infections include the U.S., Taiwan, Australia, and Germany. (For an interactive chart that allows you to compare cases and deaths among countries, scaled by population, click here.) In the U.S., confirmed cases have risen to 86,636,306, with 1,014,835 deaths. In data on the U.S. vaccination program, the number of people considered fully vaccinated now totals  221,924,152, equal to 66.8% of the total population.

  • New variants of omicron have proven to be resistant to antibodies from vaccinated and previously affected individuals. The mutation in the virus will likely increase infections; however, there is no evidence that suggests that it could lead to economic disruptions.

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