Research & News
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – Stablecoin: Treasury’s Next Big Bet? (July 21, 2025)
by Thomas Wash | PDF Mounting national debt and tightening financing conditions are pushing the US Treasury to rethink traditional funding strategies, and stablecoins have emerged as an unexpected contender. Minutes from April’s Treasury Quarterly Refunding meeting reveal that officials are actively evaluating the use of stablecoins for buying US debt. This signals a strategic… Read More »
Daily Comment (July 18, 2025)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM ET] | PDF Our Comment today opens with escalating Ukrainian drone attacks on Moscow, St. Petersburg, and other areas of Russia that could potentially prompt Kremlin retaliation against the US. We next review several other international and US developments with the potential to affect the… Read More »
Asset Allocation Quarterly (Third Quarter 2025)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF The likelihood of recession has declined during our three-year forecast period, as such we increased equity exposure. We anticipate below-trend economic growth due to persistent trade and fiscal policy ambiguity weighing on business investment, as well as consumer and investor confidence. Domestic equity exposure includes large and mid-caps,… Read More »
Daily Comment (July 17, 2025)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM ET] | PDF Our Comment today opens with a few words on President Trump’s apparent readiness to fire Federal Reserve Chair Powell. We next review several other international and US developments with the potential to affect the financial markets today, including new measures to protect… Read More »
Daily Comment (July 16, 2025)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM ET] | PDF Good morning! The market remains squarely focused on the latest earnings reports as we navigate through this busy season. Today’s Comment will highlight where the effects of tariffs are becoming more apparent in the inflation data, provide updates on ongoing trade discussions,… Read More »
Daily Comment (July 15, 2025)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM ET] | PDF Our Comment today opens with further evidence that President Trump has soured on Russia and President Putin, creating a risk of greater US-Russia tensions. We next review several other international and US developments with the potential to affect the financial markets today,… Read More »
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Mid-Year Geopolitical Outlook: Searching for the Endgames (July 14, 2025)
by the Confluence Macroeconomic Team | PDF As the first half of 2025 draws to a close, we typically update our geopolitical outlook for the remainder of the year. This report is less a series of predictions as it is a list of potential geopolitical issues that we believe will dominate the international landscape for… Read More »