Research & News
Daily Comment (August 11, 2025)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM ET] | PDF Our Comment today opens with a slew of items on China’s politics and economy. We next review several other international and US developments with the potential to affect the financial markets today, including a new Australia-India deal that aims to boost the… Read More »
Daily Comment (August 8, 2025)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM ET] | PDF Our Comment begins with a discussion of President Trump’s pick for the vacant Fed governor seat. We will then turn to other key stories shaping the market, including our thoughts on the ongoing disagreement over the US-Japan trade agreement, OpenAI’s latest update,… Read More »
Daily Comment (August 7, 2025)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM ET] | PDF Our Comment begins with an examination of President Trump’s recent tariff announcement. We will then turn to other key stories shaping the market, including our thoughts on a potential meeting between President Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin, an update on the… Read More »
Daily Comment (August 6, 2025)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM ET] | PDF Our Comment begins with an examination of why a degree of optimism about the economy remains warranted despite recent subpar economic data. We then turn to other key stories shaping the market, including our analysis of Tuesday’s Treasury auction, the president’s push… Read More »
Daily Comment (August 5, 2025)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM ET] | PDF Our Comment today opens with new data showing how China’s massive excess industrial capacity is undermining corporate profits and prompting big layoffs. We next review several other international and US developments that could affect the financial markets today, including a rush effort… Read More »
Daily Comment (August 4, 2025)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM ET] | PDF Our Comment today opens with two news items on global energy supplies, which together appear to be weighing on oil prices so far this morning. We next review several other international and US developments with the potential to affect the financial markets… Read More »
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – No Country for Recessions (August 4, 2025)
by Bill O’Grady | PDF Recessions in the United States have become less frequent over time. To illustrate this, the chart below shows data from the National Bureau of Economic Research, the official arbiter of recessions in the US, which has been establishing business cycles since January 1854. In the chart, we show the total… Read More »
Daily Comment (August 1, 2025)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM ET] | PDF Our Comment opens with a focus on the president’s new tariffs following the expiration of the August 1 deadline. We then assess major international and domestic developments impacting financial markets, including the ongoing legal challenges to the president’s tariff authority in federal… Read More »