Research & News

Daily Comment (November 3, 2021)

by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF In today’s Comment, we open with a slew of U.S. news ranging from a preview of today’s Federal Reserve decision on monetary policy to a new administration antitrust case.  We next share a few thoughts on various global and international… Read More »

Daily Comment (November 2, 2021)

by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Good morning and happy All Souls Day!  Risk markets are mostly steady this morning as the FOMC begins its meetings.  We noted yesterday that it is widely expected the Fed will announce a tapering plan to slow and eventually end… Read More »

Weekly Geopolitical Report – Approaching a Traffic Light in Germany (November 1, 2021)

by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Germany’s parliamentary elections in late September were momentous for several reasons.  Perhaps most important, the elections set the stage for a new leader to take power as Chancellor Angela Merkel decided not to stand for another term after leading Germany since 2005.  However, even though the retiring Merkel is… Read More »

Daily Comment (November 1, 2021)

by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Good morning, happy Monday, and welcome to November!  It’s going to be a busy week.  The ISM manufacturing data is out this morning.  The FOMC meets this week and will likely announce its tapering plans.  We may also get a… Read More »

Daily Comment (October 29, 2021)

by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Good morning! U.S. equity futures are signaling a lower open this morning. Today’s report begins with international news, followed by U.S. economics and policy coverage.  China news is next, and we conclude with our pandemic coverage. International news:  The European… Read More »

Asset Allocation Weekly – The Debt Ceiling and the Platinum Coin (October 29, 2021)

by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF The debt limit on authorized Treasury borrowing has created a periodic problem in recent years.  When the limit had been reached in the past, it triggered a government shutdown.  However, not all government shutdowns are simply due to reaching the debt ceiling.  Sometimes a closure occurs because Congress… Read More »

Daily Comment (October 28, 2021)

by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Good morning!  It’s a big day today.  Q3 GDP is out (quick take—the data was weaker than expected, with very weak investment and a larger drag from net exports); we cover it in detail below.  The ECB meeting is also… Read More »

Weekly Energy Update (October 28, 2021)

by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Prices have moved above $85 per barrel this week but retreated on this week’s inventory data. (Source: Barchart.com) Crude oil inventories rose 4.3 mb compared to a 1.8 mb build forecast.  The SPR declined 1.1 mb, meaning the net draw was 3.2 mb. In… Read More »

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