Research & News

Asset Allocation Weekly (September 13, 2019)

by Asset Allocation Committee In recent reports, we have discussed the yield curve and its value in signaling the business cycle.  One of the problems for investors with using the various permutations of the yield curve as a signaling device is that it gives such early warnings that it may not be all that useful. This… Read More »

Daily Comment (September 13, 2019)

by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Happy Friday!  It’s a quiet morning with equities continuing to lift on trade hopes.  Should we be worried about inflation?  The day after the ECB.  Here is what we are watching this morning: Trade:  It looks like an “off ramp” may be… Read More »

Daily Comment (September 12, 2019)

by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] The ECB delivers.  The U.S. is delaying tariffs on China.  Here is what we are watching this morning: The ECB:  In the statement, the ECB restarted QE to the tune of €20 billion per month and cut deposit rates to -50 bps. … Read More »

Daily Comment (September 11, 2019)

by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It is 9/11, the 18th anniversary of the terrorist attack on New York and Washington.  Equity markets are mostly steady this morning.  We are rotating in equities.  China gives in (a little) on trade.  Bolton’s out.  Here is what we are watching… Read More »

Daily Comment (September 10, 2019)

by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Good morning!  Equity markets are a bit lower this morning, although there is a huge amount of rotation in the sectors.  Chinese inflation data was mixed.  Parliament is prorogued.  Here is what we are watching this morning: Is the ECB set to… Read More »

Weekly Geopolitical Report – A Kashmir Sweater (September 9, 2019)

by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA Since coming to power in 2014, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has shown a penchant for using surprise to launch new policies.  In 2016, for example, his government announced a sudden replacement of large-denomination bank notes to fight crime and curtail the shadow economy.  Modi’s latest shocker came early last month,… Read More »

Daily Comment (September 9, 2019)

by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Happy Monday!  Global equity markets are edging higher this morning.  China’s economic data was a bit soft.  Russian local elections were a rebuke of Putin.  The Brexit saga continues in Ireland.  Here is what we are watching this morning: Russia:  In Moscow’s… Read More »

Asset Allocation Weekly (September 6, 2019)

by Asset Allocation Committee In 2017, we introduced an indicator of the basic health of the economy and added it to the many charts we monitor to gauge market conditions.  The indicator is constructed using commodity prices, initial claims and consumer confidence.  The thesis behind this indicator is that these three components should offer a simple… Read More »

Daily Comment (September 6, 2019)

by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Happy employment data Friday!  We cover the data in detail below but here is the snapshot—it was mixed.  The payroll report was soft, but wage growth and the household survey were rather strong.  Financial markets are taking the report as weak, focusing… Read More »

Daily Comment (September 5, 2019)

by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Trade optimism is lifting risk assets; equities are up, while gold, the dollar and Treasuries are down.  Here are the details and other items we are watching: An observation:  One of the most difficult tasks humans face is trying to deal with… Read More »

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