Research & News

Weekly Geopolitical Report – Turkey’s Predicament (August 10, 2015)

by Bill O’Grady In 2013, we wrote a WGR that looked at Turkey’s likely rise to regional hegemon status.  In that report, we made the case that Turkey was well positioned to return to its historic status as a dominant regional power.  This remains our view over the next few decades.  However, in the near… Read More »

Weekly Geopolitical Report – Reflections on the Iran Deal (August 3, 2015)

by Bill O’Grady Last month, the P5+1[1] and Iran concluded negotiations on a nuclear deal.  In this report, we will offer some reflections on the agreement, including why it occurred, and the major reason why the U.S. negotiated this agreement and the underlying issues.  As always, we will conclude with market ramifications. View the full report… Read More »

Weekly Geopolitical Report – Laudato Sí (July 27, 2015)

by Bill O’Grady Last week, the Vatican held a meeting of the mayors of some of the world’s largest cities to discuss climate change. This meeting was part of Pope Francis’s efforts to add to the discussion of climate change, which was the subject of a recent encyclical, Laudato Sí. In this report, we will… Read More »

Weekly Geopolitical Report – Imperial Germany (July 20, 2015)

by Bill O’Grady Last week, we analyzed the Greek/Eurozone negotiations using game theory as an explanatory tool.  In this report, we will review the basic geopolitics of Europe, the political response and the evolution of the Eurozone.  Using this background, we will examine Germany’s actions in the most recent Greek crisis.  As always, we will… Read More »

Asset Allocation Quarterly (Third Quarter 2015)

Significant disruptions or financial stress from Greece’s debt problems appear to have been avoided, in the near term. However, structural problems that led to the Greek crisis have yet to be properly addressed and we expect the issue to emerge again in the future. It will be important to monitor how Greek creditors and other… Read More »

Weekly Geopolitical Report – Greek Games: An Update (July 13, 2015)

by Bill O’Grady On Sunday, July 5th, Greeks voted in a special referendum to decide whether to accept the troika’s most recent proposal to end the current debt and financial crisis.  Voters in Greece overwhelmingly rejected the EU’s offer.  Since the vote, EU and Greek officials have been meeting, trying to determine the path forward. … Read More »

Keller Quarterly (July 2015)

Letter to Investors I once had a seventh grade teacher tell my class how lucky we were to be citizens of the United States.  Of course, we all took it for granted.  We didn’t know anything different…but she did.  You see, Mrs. Danishevsky, who taught us Russian, had emigrated from the Soviet Union and knew… Read More »

Weekly Geopolitical Report – The 2015 Mid-Year Geopolitical Outlook (June 29, 2015)

by Bill O’Grady As is our custom, at mid-year, we update our geopolitical outlook for the rest of the year.  This report is less a series of predictions as it is a list of potential geopolitical issues that we believe will dominate the international situation into year’s end.  It is not designed to be exhaustive;… Read More »

Weekly Geopolitical Report – Cyber Security and Terrorism: Case Studies (June 22, 2015)

by Kaisa Stucke, CFA In April 2007, Estonian government workers found their internet connectivity interrupted and e-mail access compromised.  In hindsight, this marked the beginning of a three-week cyber attack on the country’s government and private servers.  The attacks forced many servers to block international connections.  At the same time, street riots by ethnic Russians were… Read More »

Weekly Geopolitical Report – An Alternative to Gandhi (June 15, 2015)

by Kaisa Stucke, CFA Shortly after being elected into office last year, the new Indian Prime Minister, Narendra Modi, visited a memorial for Veer Savarkar, an Indian independence fighter, praising his lifetime of “tireless efforts toward the regeneration of our motherland.”  On its surface the move seems to be nothing out of the ordinary; however, the… Read More »

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