Research & News

Daily Comment (December 14, 2020)

by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Good morning and happy Monday!  U.S. equity futures are higher this morning as vaccine distribution begins.  The Electoral College votes today.  There are two big items today—Brexit and the vaccine, so we lead off with those two categories.  There was… Read More »

Daily Comment (December 11, 2020)

by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Good morning and happy Friday!  The lack of progress on a stimulus package, the potential for a government shutdown, and the increasing likelihood of a disruptive Brexit are all weighing on equities this morning.  Accordingly, we lead off our coverage… Read More »

Asset Allocation Weekly (December 11, 2020)

by Asset Allocation Committee | PDF After peaking at $2,063 in early August, gold prices fell to $1,760 at the end of November.  This is a notable decline and, because our asset allocation models have included precious metals since 2018, it makes sense to see if anything has changed.  We have several different ways to… Read More »

Daily Comment (December 10, 2020)

by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Good morning!  The ECB met today and decided to increase its long-term bond purchases; the market’s initial reaction is hawkish.  The EUR has rallied, and rates have lifted (albeit modestly).  U.S. equity futures are mostly sideways this morning.  There is… Read More »

Daily Comment (December 9, 2020)

by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Our Daily Comment today opens with the latest coronavirus news.  Importantly, the U.K. vaccinations yesterday turned up two negative reactions in people with allergy issues, but the news doesn’t seem to be undermining vaccine euphoria yet.  There’s also a new… Read More »

Daily Comment (December 8, 2020)

by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Our Daily Comment today opens with a discussion of the latest coronavirus developments.  The near-term bad news of worsening infections and continued hurdles to a new U.S. pandemic relief bill continue to present headwinds to risk markets. However, that is,… Read More »

Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Disputed Territory of Nagorno-Karabakh: Part II (December 7, 2020)

by Thomas Wash | PDF After a six-week war, Armenia regretfully conceded some of the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh to its longtime rival Azerbaijan. Making matters worse, Armenian President Armen Sarkisyan admitted that he wasn’t even involved in discussions regarding his country’s surrender. As of today, ethnic Armenians have evacuated the conceded regions, while Russian… Read More »

The Case for Small Caps (December 7, 2020)

by Bill O’Grady, Mark Keller, and Dan Winter | PDF To measure market capitalization, we use the Wilshire Large Cap and Wilshire Small Cap indices. The following chart shows the log-transformed ratio. On this chart, a rising number indicates stronger large caps relative to small caps. In general, small caps tend to outperform coming out… Read More »

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