Research & News

Daily Comment (April 10, 2019)

by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It’s a very quiet morning in front of some important news today.  Brexit, the ECB meeting and Fed minutes are all on tap this morning.  Here is what we are watching: ECB: The ECB has pushed the first rate hike into next year (and it… Read More »

Daily Comment (April 9, 2019)

by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It’s a very quiet morning in front of Brexit deadlines.  The only economic news of note was weak Chinese car sales (-12.7% in March).  Here is what we are watching: BREAKING NEWS: Italy reduces its GDP forecast to 0.1% from 1.0% this year.  This action… Read More »

Weekly Geopolitical Report – When Hegemons Fade (April 8, 2019)

by Bill O’Grady In our Daily Comment report, a section on Brexit has become something of a regular feature.  As part of keeping up with developments, we have commented on nearly every twist and turn (or lack thereof) in the Brexit process.  In a recent WGR series, we discussed the Irish problem[1] and how it relates… Read More »

Daily Comment (April 8, 2019)

by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Happy Monday!  Although we are in spring, a massive winter storm is moving over the northern plains and will delay planting in the northern Corn Belt.  It will also increase flooding in the major river systems in a couple of weeks.  Here is what we… Read More »

Asset Allocation Weekly (April 5, 2019)

by Asset Allocation Committee Mortgage-backed securities have rather odd characteristics compared to Treasuries.  At their most basic level, mortgages are bonds—prices are inversely related to yields.  The pricing on mortgages assumes a certain level of refinancing activity.  However, when yields rise, expected mortgage duration tends to extend because mortgage holders are less likely to refinance.  When… Read More »

Daily Comment (April 5, 2019)

by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It’s employment Friday!  We cover the data in detail below, but the quick take is that it is a nearly perfect report.  Payrolls recovered, unemployment remained low and wage pressures eased.  Here is what we are watching today: Trade progress: President Trump[1] and Chairman Xi[2]… Read More »

Daily Comment (April 4, 2019)

by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Markets are quiet this morning; initial claims fell to a 49-year low.  Here is what we are watching: Trade progress: President Trump and Vice Premier Liu are scheduled to meet at the White House today, a sign that trade talks are heading toward some sort… Read More »

Daily Comment (April 3, 2019)

by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It’s a “risk-on” morning.  Equities are up around the world.  It’s also the 70th anniversary of NATO.[1]  Here is what we are watching this morning: A trade deal with China: Reports suggest the U.S. and China are nearing an agreement on trade.[2]  The two sides… Read More »

Daily Comment (April 2, 2019)

by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Markets are quiet after a strong rally yesterday.  Here is what we are watching this morning: Turkey fallout: The stunning losses in local elections have put President Erdogan on notice—the economy is suffering and he needs to address the problem.  Addressing a weakening economy with… Read More »

Weekly Geopolitical Report – Modern Monetary Theory: Part IV (April 1, 2019)

by Bill O’Grady In Part III, we examined the role of economic paradigms in the equality/ efficiency cycle.  This week, we conclude this four-part series with a discussion on the flaws of Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) and market ramifications. The Flaws of MMT All of the major economic paradigms previously discussed lead to eventual problems.  Capital-friendly… Read More »

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