Research & News

Daily Comment (November 29, 2018)

by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Good morning!  Equities are consolidating this morning after a strong rally yesterday.  Here is what we are watching today: Powell:  After spooking the financial markets in October, Fed Chair Powell gave a much more dovish speech yesterday.  There were two elements of this talk that… Read More »

Daily Comment (November 28, 2018)

by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Good morning!  Equities are ticking higher in front of Chair Powell’s speech this morning.  Here is what we are watching today: The Fed: Chair Powell speaks in NY at 12:00 EST.  We don’t expect anything groundbreaking but we will be watching to see if he follows… Read More »

Daily Comment (November 27, 2018)

by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Good morning!  Risk markets are under pressure this morning after the president maintained a hard line on Chinese tariffs.  Here is what we are watching today: Chinese tariffs: In an interview with the WSJ,[1] President Trump indicated that he expects to lift existing tariffs on $200… Read More »

Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Malevolent Hegemon: Part I (November 26, 2018)

by Bill O’Grady Since the election of Donald Trump, there has been much discussion about the demise of the “Liberal International Order,” or LIO.  Several books on the topic have been published recently[1] and the general tenor is that the U.S. is giving up global leadership and the world is in trouble.  We have been making… Read More »

Daily Comment (November 26, 2018)

by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Happy Monday!  Risk markets are higher this morning on hopes of a détente between China and the U.S. on trade and on hopes that the FOMC will signal some dovishness.  Thanksgiving has passed and the West is gearing up for Christmas.  Here is what we are… Read More »

Daily Comment (November 20, 2018)

by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] (NB: The Daily Comment will go on hiatus beginning Wednesday, November 21st, returning on Monday, November 26th.  From all of us at Confluence Investment Management, have a Happy Thanksgiving!) Another down day for equities—stocks continue their slide.  News flow was surprisingly light overnight.  Here is… Read More »

Daily Comment (November 19, 2018)

by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] (NB: The Daily Comment will go on hiatus beginning Wednesday, November 21st, returning on Monday, November 26th.) Happy Monday!  It’s a short week as the U.S. prepares for the Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday and a slow day on Friday.  Here is what we are watching… Read More »

Asset Allocation Weekly (November 16, 2018)

by Asset Allocation Committee (NB: Due to the Thanksgiving holiday, the next report will be published on November 30.) Last year, we introduced an indicator of the basic health of the economy and added it to the many charts we monitor to gauge market conditions.  The indicator is constructed with commodity prices, initial claims and consumer… Read More »

Daily Comment (November 16, 2018)

by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] (NB: The Daily Comment will go on hiatus beginning Wednesday, November 21st, returning on Monday, November 26th.) Happy Friday!  After a strong close in equities yesterday, we are giving some of the gains back this morning.  Trade worries continue to dominate.  This is what we… Read More »

Daily Comment (November 15, 2018)

by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] (NB: The Daily Comment will go on hiatus beginning Wednesday, November 21st, returning on Monday, November 26th.) It’s Thursday morning.  Today’s headlines are being dominated by Brexit.  Here is what we are watching: Brexit: PM May suffered a significant blow overnight as two cabinet ministers… Read More »

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