Research & News

Daily Comment (February 6, 2019)

by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] U.S. equity futures are a bit lower this morning in a very quiet trade.  Here is what we are watching today: State of the Union: For financial markets, there wasn’t much in the speech that mattered.  There was nothing on taxes and the potential for any… Read More »

Daily Comment (February 5, 2019)

by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] U.S. equity futures are modestly higher this morning in a very quiet trade.  Much of Asia remains closed for the New Year.  Here is what we are watching this morning: The President and the Chair: President Trump, Treasury Secretary Mnuchin, Chair Powell and Vice Chair Clarida… Read More »

Weekly Geopolitical Report – What to do with China: Part II (February 4, 2019)

by Bill O’Grady In Part I of this report, we laid out the two narratives that the U.S. and China are using to frame relations between the two countries.  This week, we will summarize the two positions and examine the potential for war using the historical examples of British policy toward the U.S. and Germany, offering… Read More »

Daily Comment (February 4, 2019)

by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] The Year of the Pig begins!  Several Asian markets were closed and China will be closed all week.  Thus, it was a very quiet overnight session.  Here is what we are watching this morning: Venezuela: Although the EU did not act as a group to call… Read More »

Asset Allocation Weekly (February 1, 2019)

by Asset Allocation Committee In our analysis, both small caps and mid-caps are undervalued relative to their large cap cousins. These charts compare mid-caps and small caps to large cap stocks.  We log-transform the data and use a time trend to scale the transformed indices as well.  The lower line on both charts indicate that small… Read More »

Daily Comment (February 1, 2019)

by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It’s employment day!  We cover the data in detail below but here is a quick rundown.  The payroll data came in much stronger than expected, but there was a large downward revision to December.  The unemployment rate ticked higher, but that was likely due to the… Read More »

Daily Comment (January 31, 2019)

by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Yesterday brought a strong rally in U.S. equities.  Here is what we are watching this morning: Fed meeting: The Fed meeting delivered more than what was expected.[1]  First, the FOMC removed language from previous statements suggesting the path for the policy rate was on a gradual… Read More »

Daily Comment (January 30, 2019)

by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Happy Fed Day!  U.S. equity futures are higher this morning in light of some solid earnings reports.  Here is what we are watching this morning: Fed meeting: The FOMC ends its two-day meeting today.  Although we won’t get new dots or forecasts, Chair Powell begins his… Read More »

Daily Comment (January 29, 2019)

by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] U.S. equity futures are modestly higher this morning after a drop yesterday.  It’s the last week of the Year of the Dog—my two are sad about its end.  The Year of the Pig starts next week.  Here is what we are watching this morning: Trade talks… Read More »

Weekly Geopolitical Report – What to do with China: Part I (January 28, 2019)

by Bill O’Grady Graham Allison published a controversial book in 2017 in which he argued that the probability for a major war increases when an established hegemon faces an emerging power that threatens the hegemon’s position.  He used Thucydides, the Greek historian who wrote a history of the war between Sparta and Athens, as his model… Read More »

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