Research & News

Asset Allocation Quarterly (First Quarter 2023)

by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF Our three-year forecast contains a dynamic economic environment comprising both a normal recession and ensuing recovery. Upon signs of economic fragility, we expect the Fed to suspend its current assertive drive to quell inflation, with the likelihood that policymakers will cease their balance sheet reduction but will not… Read More »

Weekly Energy Update (January 20, 2023)

by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Crude oil prices are trying to base but so far have failed to break above resistance at around $80 per barrel. (Source: Barchart.com) Crude oil inventories rose 8.4 mb compared to a 2.0 mb draw forecast.  The SPR was unchanged, the first time since… Read More »

Keller Quarterly (January 2023)

Letter to Investors | PDF A new year is underway, and we wish you and yours all the best in 2023! The stock market certainly seems to be optimistic about the new year: the S&P 500 is up 4.1% through its first full two weeks of 2023 and it’s up 14.5% from the 52-week low… Read More »

Daily Comment (January 19, 2023)

by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] | PDF Good morning! Today’s Comment begins with the market’s reaction to Wednesday’s economic data. Next, we discuss why central banks are now pushing for smaller rate hikes. We end the report with our thoughts about the recent developments in tech and crypto. A… Read More »

Daily Comment (January 18, 2023)

by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] | PDF Our Comment today opens with an upward revision in the International Energy Agency’s forecast for global oil demand this year, which is giving a boost to oil prices so far this morning.  We next review a wide range of other international and… Read More »

Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – The Master of Surprise (January 17, 2023)

by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF [Note: The podcast that accompanies this report will be delayed until Friday, January 20.] They don’t call Haruhiko Kuroda the “Master of Surprise” for nothing. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor lifted the yield cap on 10-year Japanese government bonds (JGB) by 25 bps last month. The bank… Read More »

Daily Comment (January 17, 2023)

by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] | PDF Our Comment today opens with a slew of reports related to China and its recent shift toward supporting domestic economic growth and easing tensions with the West.  We next review a wide range of other international and U.S. developments with the potential… Read More »

Daily Comment (January 13, 2023)

by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] | PDF Good morning! Today’s Comment begins with a discussion on whether the Fed is close to ending its rate-hiking cycle. Next, we explain why changes to Japan’s controversial yield-curve-control policy pose a risk to the international financial system. The report ends with our… Read More »

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