Research & News

Daily Comment (August 14, 2019)

by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It’s mid-week in what has been a busy week.  President Trump blinks (sort of) on trade.  Equity markets don’t follow through, mostly due to lingering trade uncertainty and mounting evidence of global economic weakness.  Hong Kong remains a flashpoint.  Here is what… Read More »

Daily Comment (August 13, 2019)

by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It’s an August Tuesday.  Risk markets are falling again this morning.  Although there is a lot of news most of it is a continuation of recent events.  Here is what we are watching: Hong Kong:  Protests continue this morning; check-ins have been… Read More »

Weekly Geopolitical Report – Weaponizing the Dollar: Part I (August 12, 2019)

by Bill O’Grady Weaponizing the Dollar: Part I In July 1944, 44 allied nations gathered at the Mount Washington Hotel in Bretton Woods, NH to develop the structure for the economic and financial systems for the postwar world.  The Bretton Woods agreement established a system of fixed exchange rates.  Exchange rates were pegged to the… Read More »

Daily Comment (August 12, 2019)

by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It’s an August Monday.  Equities are under pressure again this morning and risk assets, in general, are weaker.  Here is what we are watching: China and the dollar: For the third consecutive day, the PBOC fixed the CNY/USD exchange rate above 7. … Read More »

Asset Allocation Weekly (August 9, 2019)

by Asset Allocation Committee Since the end of WWII, there have generally been three factors that have caused recessions.  The first, and most important, is policy error.  Although fiscal tightening can cause recessions, major tax increases have become less common.  The usual source of policy error comes from the monetary side, where the central bank either… Read More »

Daily Comment (August 9, 2019)

by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Happy Friday! Equities are giving back some of yesterday’s stronger gains.  The Italian government is near a collapse.  U.K. economy disappoints.  U.S. holds off on tech decisions.  And, five decades ago today, the famous album cover photo of Abbey Road was snapped. … Read More »

Daily Comment (August 8, 2019)

by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Good morning! Markets are relatively quiet this morning after an impressive reversal in the equity markets yesterday.  We are seeing a backup in bond yields in the past hour on reports Germany may finally be considering fiscal expansion.  Here is what we… Read More »

Daily Comment (August 7, 2019)

by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Good morning! Risk assets are rising again this morning.  Central banks make a splash; gold continues to march higher.  Trade conflict with China remains front and center. Here are the details: Central bank surprise:  The Reserve Bank of New Zealand, the Reserve… Read More »

Daily Comment (August 6, 2019)

by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Good morning! Risk assets are getting a bounce this morning.  Trade conflict with China remains front and center. Here are the details: Currency manipulator:  The Treasury has officially designated China a “currency manipulator.”  This designation isn’t as big a deal in reality… Read More »

Weekly Geopolitical Report – Turkey Lashing Out (August 5, 2019)

by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA Here at Confluence, we write a lot about the rise and fall of hegemonic states – those great nations that develop enough power and influence to dominate the global economy, or at least some region of it.  These superpowers use their extraordinary military might and other levers to impose order on… Read More »

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