Research & News

Weekly Geopolitical Report – Russia’s Struggles (February 8, 2016)

by Bill O’Grady Over the past year, Russia has faced a growing number of challenges that have the potential to weaken President Putin’s hold on the reins of power.  In this report, we will discuss recent trends in the country, including the economic problems caused by falling oil prices and the military operations occurring in Ukraine… Read More »

Weekly Geopolitical Report – Trouble in Taiwan (February 1, 2016)

by Bill O’Grady Taiwan held elections on January 16th and the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) won a resounding victory over the Kuomintang (KMT).  This election will likely raise tensions between Taiwan and Mainland China (People’s Republic of China, PRC). In this report, we will begin with a history of Taiwan.  Next, we will recap the election… Read More »

Weekly Geopolitical Report – Italy’s Banking Crisis (January 25, 2016)

by Kaisa Stucke, CFA On January 1, 2016, the EU implemented a new bank restructuring directive.  The new and stricter rules are aimed at forcing private stock, bond and deposit holders to accept losses before public funds would be used in a bank restructuring.  Although all EU countries are affected by these new rules, Italy remains… Read More »

Asset Allocation Quarterly (First Quarter 2016)

Low global growth rates and tighter Fed policy are combining to lower financial market return potential, while increasing overall volatility. We believe U.S. growth will remain low and the Fed will raise rates gradually. At this point we do not foresee a recession. The low growth rate in the U.S. will likely be higher than… Read More »

Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Saudi Executions (January 11, 2016)

by Bill O’Grady On January 2, Saudi Arabia executed 47 people accused of various crimes against the state.  Of this unfortunate group, 46 were Sunni jihadist radicals and one was a Shiite cleric, Sheik Nimr al-Nimr.  Al-Nimr’s execution set off protests in Iran and the Saudi Embassy in Tehran was sacked.  In response, the Saudis broke… Read More »

Keller Quarterly (January 2016)

Letter to Investors The turning of the annual calendar occasions all sorts of prognostications in our profession.  We prefer not to think in terms of forecasts, but rather in terms of probable scenarios. All sorts of things are possible in 2016, but not all scenarios are equally probable.  For example, a great many purveyors of… Read More »

Weekly Geopolitical Report – The 2016 Geopolitical Outlook (December 14, 2015)

by Bill O’Grady As is our custom, we close out the current year with our outlook for the next one.  This report is less a series of predictions as it is a list of potential geopolitical issues that we believe will dominate the international landscape in the upcoming year.  It is not designed to be exhaustive;… Read More »

Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Evolution of IS (December 7, 2015)

by Bill O’Grady An Islamic State (IS) affiliate downed Russian Metrojet Flight 9268 in October.  In November, IS-affiliated terrorists launched a series of attacks in Paris.  These two events suggest a significant change in the behavior of IS.  Prior to the Paris attacks, IS appeared to be focused on building a caliphate in Syria and Iraq. … Read More »

2016 Outlook (November 30, 2015)

by Bill O’Grady & Mark Keller | PDF In this report, we will offer our outlook for the upcoming year.  Twenty-sixteen could be an interesting year—presidential elections will be held, the Federal Reserve could tighten monetary policy and the geopolitical landscape will likely remain complicated.  We will begin the report with our base case for… Read More »

Weekly Geopolitical Report – Putin and Flight 9268 (November 23, 2015)

by Bill O’Grady On October 31st, Russian Metrojet Flight 9268 took off from Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, at 5:58 local time en route to St. Petersburg, Russia.  Within 25 minutes, the aircraft, an Airbus A321, disappeared from radar over central Sinai.  By the time radar contact was lost, the aircraft had reached its cruising altitude of 33,000… Read More »

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