Research & News

Daily Comment (April 5, 2017)

by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Yesterday, Richmond FRB President Lacker announced he was stepping down immediately after admitting he was involved in a leak of confidential information to an analyst with Medley Advisors, a well-connected Washington think tank.  In October 2012, Medley published details of Fed deliberations that were… Read More »

Daily Comment (April 4, 2017)

by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It’s another quiet and mostly sluggish day in global markets.  The French are holding a presidential debate today at 8:40 pm local time (2:40 EDT) that will be closely watched.  Current polling hasn’t changed; Le Pen and Macron will likely win the first round… Read More »

Weekly Geopolitical Report – The EU at 60: Part I (April 3, 2017)

by Bill O’Grady On March 25th, European Union (EU) leaders from 27 nations gathered in Rome to celebrate the 60th anniversary of the founding of the organization.  Although the EU currently consists of 28 members, the U.K. was absent due to its recent decision to leave the EU. On that day in 1957, France, West Germany,… Read More »

Daily Comment (April 3, 2017)

by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] BREAKING: There was a bombing on a St. Petersburg subway that has killed at least 10 and injured 50.  This is still a developing story.  Thus far, no group has claimed responsibility.  With the recent widespread protests (according to reports, nearly 100 cities have… Read More »

Asset Allocation Weekly (March 31, 2017)

by Asset Allocation Committee Historically, recessions tend to come from three sources—overly tight monetary policy, geopolitical events and inventory overhangs.  The latter has mostly become irrelevant due to improved inventory management, leaving overly tight monetary policy and geopolitical events as the typical causes of downturns.  As our regular readers know, we monitor both quite closely. One… Read More »

Daily Comment (March 31, 2017)

by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Global equity markets had a weak tone overnight but much of that is probably related to quarter-end adjusting.  We did see good Chinese data (see below) and sentiment surveys remain robust.  For example, the National Association of Manufacturers’ outlook survey hit a new all-time… Read More »

Daily Comment (March 30, 2017)

by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Markets are very quiet this morning.  We are seeing the dollar lift in part due to hawkish comments from Fed officials yesterday.  For example, Boston FRB President Rosengren called for three more hikes this year; we rate Rosengren as a moderate so his hawkish… Read More »

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