Research & News
Daily Comment (February 8, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] Although U.S. equity markets have been generally moving sideways for the past couple of weeks, there have been some interesting developments. Here are a few items of note: Greece should leave the Eurozone: In its latest report on Greece, the IMF displayed this sobering… Read More »
Daily Comment (February 7, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] We are seeing the dollar rise this morning along with U.S. equity futures. There isn’t a lot of news to indicate a reason for the rise in the greenback. Perhaps the best explanation is that the drop we have seen in the dollar over… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Exit the Shark (February 6, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady On January 8, Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani died of a heart attack. The 82-year-old cleric was a major political figure in Iran and his passing is a significant event for Iran and the region. Analyses of history usually follow one of two lines—the “Great Man” or the “Great Wave.”[1] The former postulates that the… Read More »
Daily Comment (February 6, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] It was a mostly quiet weekend, at least quiet based on the standards of the new administration. Super Bowl weekend has become something of a national holiday in the U.S. and last night’s game was one for the ages. So, even with injunctions and… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (February 3, 2017)
by Asset Allocation Committee Although our current allocation models exclude emerging markets, we still monitor various emerging market nations for potential opportunities. A country that has been in the news recently is Mexico. President Trump has been targeting Mexico and the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) for Mexico’s persistent trade surpluses with the U.S. This… Read More »
Daily Comment (February 3, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] It’s employment Friday! We have a plethora of charts below but, in short, the report was rather mixed. The payroll survey was surprisingly robust, rising 227k compared to expectations of +180k. Wages were soft, with yearly average earnings rising 2.5%, less than the 2.7%… Read More »
Daily Comment (February 2, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] There’s a lot going on this Groundhog Day,[1] so let’s get started: The Fed: The FOMC meeting was a clear non-event. Almost none of the language changed and the new committee didn’t give us any hints that it is prepared to raise rates any… Read More »
Daily Comment (February 1, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] Happy Fed Day! The FOMC completes its first meeting of the year with a new slate of voters. This shows the 2017 voters on the FOMC. The red ‘X’ represents permanent voters. The 2016 regional bank presidents who won’t vote this year are St.… Read More »
Daily Comment (January 31, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] There was a lot of political news overnight but it didn’t have much impact on financial markets. However, this morning, Peter Navarro, the director of the newly formed National Trade Council, told the FT that Germany is using a “grossly undervalued” exchange rate to… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Future of the Euro (January 30, 2017)
by Thomas Wash January 1, 2017, marked the 18th anniversary of the induction of the euro, the European single currency. Once praised as the uniting force among European countries, the euro has become a source of populist backlash. From Greece to France, populist politicians have increased their political clout to the chagrin of the establishment.… Read More »