Research & News
Daily Comment (February 2, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] There’s a lot going on this Groundhog Day,[1] so let’s get started: The Fed: The FOMC meeting was a clear non-event. Almost none of the language changed and the new committee didn’t give us any hints that it is prepared to raise rates any… Read More »
Daily Comment (February 1, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] Happy Fed Day! The FOMC completes its first meeting of the year with a new slate of voters. This shows the 2017 voters on the FOMC. The red ‘X’ represents permanent voters. The 2016 regional bank presidents who won’t vote this year are St.… Read More »
Daily Comment (January 31, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] There was a lot of political news overnight but it didn’t have much impact on financial markets. However, this morning, Peter Navarro, the director of the newly formed National Trade Council, told the FT that Germany is using a “grossly undervalued” exchange rate to… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Future of the Euro (January 30, 2017)
by Thomas Wash January 1, 2017, marked the 18th anniversary of the induction of the euro, the European single currency. Once praised as the uniting force among European countries, the euro has become a source of populist backlash. From Greece to France, populist politicians have increased their political clout to the chagrin of the establishment.… Read More »
Daily Comment (January 30, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] One of the key themes we have been monitoring since Trump’s election has been the uneasy alliance between the populists and the GOP establishment. We personalized this interaction as Speaker Ryan versus Chief Strategist Bannon. The policies that would be supported from the Ryan… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (January 27, 2017)
by Asset Allocation Committee The consensus estimate for Q4 2016 S&P 500 operating earnings growth is 3.2%, which translates into a forecast of $118.35 per share for the S&P 500, using Thomson/Reuters data. Using a similar growth rate, the Standard and Poor’s calculation of operating earnings generates annual earnings of $102.16. Simply put, these two sources… Read More »
Daily Comment (January 27, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] It was a quiet night overall; the big news is Q4 GDP, which we will cover below. Here are a few items we are watching: The Italian Constitutional Court finally clarified the 2015 election reform law, known as the “Italicum.” It ruled against a… Read More »
Daily Comment (January 26, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] Global equities are holding this week’s gains on renewed optimism that tax changes and infrastructure spending will lift the economy and earnings. We note that the GOP House leadership is pressing the idea that tax changes should be mostly revenue-neutral and there is a… Read More »
Daily Comment (January 25, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] After a sluggish start to the year, equity markets have resumed their northward march. There isn’t a whole lot of news to trigger this rise, although the reversal of the Obama policy on pipelines may have lifted hopes that deregulation is really on the… Read More »
Keller Quarterly (January 2017)
Letter to Investors 2016 was full of surprises, and we expect that 2017 will be just as surprising. As we discussed in last quarter’s letter, the job of an investment manager is to navigate the world that is, not the world that we would like to have. Thus, rather than try to correctly predict what… Read More »