Research & News

Daily Comment (March 29, 2017)

by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] The big news today is no surprise but is still important—PM May formally declared Article 50, beginning the process of the U.K.’s exit from the EU.  The law gives both parties two years to work out the exit details.  Article 50 has never been… Read More »

Daily Comment (March 28, 2017)

by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] As we mentioned yesterday, we want to expand our thoughts on equities.  Although growing disappointment is a worry regarding the president’s ability to execute his agenda, we do note that cash levels remain elevated. This chart shows the level of retail money market funds… Read More »

Weekly Geopolitical Report – It’s Tsar, Not Comrade (March 27, 2017)

by Bill O’Grady February 12th was the 100-year anniversary of the Russian Revolution.  Surprisingly, the Kremlin has taken a very low-key stance on the centenary.  We believe the government’s decision to downplay this historical event offers an insight into Russian President Putin’s thinking. In this report, we will present a history of the Russian Revolution, showing… Read More »

Daily Comment (March 27, 2017)

by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Global equity markets are in retreat this morning as bond yields fall and the dollar declines.  What we are seeing is the reversal of the “Trump trade” that came out of the election.  The Trump trade was to buy equities (especially financials), sell bonds… Read More »

Asset Allocation Weekly (March 24, 2017)

by Asset Allocation Committee In a recent Bloomberg Surveillance podcast,[1] Sebastian Mallaby made an interesting observation about the recent Fed tightening.  He noted how the asset markets mostly ignored or cheered the move.  Mallaby suggested that this isn’t necessarily a good outcome, meaning that central bank tightening should not be welcomed by the financial markets.  When… Read More »

Daily Comment (March 24, 2017)

by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] The focus of attention remains on the AHCA, which is due for a vote this afternoon.  The president has already pivoted on this issue; he has warned that if the vote fails, the GOP is stuck with the ACA for good and he is… Read More »

Daily Comment (March 23, 2017)

by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Yesterday, there was a terrorist attack near Parliament in the U.K.  Five people were killed (including the terrorist) and around 40 injured.  Although reports suggest the attacker, who hasn’t been named yet, acted alone, eight others have been arrested.  This attack followed the pattern… Read More »

Daily Comment (March 22, 2017)

by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Yesterday saw the first 1% decline in the S&P since October.  We have seen a strong rise in equities since the Trump election, with much of it coming from expectations of stronger economic growth due to fiscal spending, tax cuts and deregulation.  It does… Read More »

Daily Comment (March 21, 2017)

by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] As noted below, we have a full slate of Fed officials talking today.  We expect these speakers to generally confirm the Fed’s policy stance for at least two more hikes this year, with the potential for a third.  The most interesting member, Minneapolis FRB… Read More »

Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Rise of AMLO: Part II (March 20, 2017)

by Thomas Wash In their next general election, Mexicans will cast their vote for the 64th president of the country’s history. The two frontrunners are Margarita Zavala from the National Action Party and Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO) from the National Regeneration Movement (MORENA). Although the election won’t be held until July 2018, current polls suggest… Read More »

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