Research & News
Asset Allocation Weekly (August 3, 2018)
by Asset Allocation Committee At the end of June, we published a study of how the equity and bond markets reacted to the inversion of the yield curve. This week’s report takes that inversion data and compares it to how the 10 sectors of the S&P 500 perform.[1] For this report, we will use the two-year/10-year… Read More »
Daily Comment (August 3, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Happy Beer Day![1] Also, it’s employment data day. We detail the data below but the quick take is that the data is a bit better than expected but not so strong as to change policy. Financial markets are treating the report with some caution, mostly due… Read More »
Daily Comment (August 2, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It’s a risk-off morning. The news driving the weakness in equities appears to be related to escalating trade tensions with China. Here is what we are watching this morning: Trade update: Yesterday, there were reports that the White House was considering increasing the tariff rate on… Read More »
Daily Comment (August 1, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Happy August! Summer is winding down—it seems like it just started. Here is what we are watching: The Fed: The meeting ends this afternoon. No rate hike is forecast.[1] The only item of interest will be the statement, which probably won’t tell us anything. Even so,… Read More »
Daily Comment (July 31, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It’s July 31st, the Feast Day of St. Ignatius of Loyola, the founder of the Society of Jesus (Jesuits). Here is what we are watching: BREAKING: CHINA SEEKING NEW TRADE TALKS TO DEFUSE TRADE WAR. EQUITIES RISE ON NEWS. BOJ: The BOJ has spoken and not… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Iran Sanctions and Potential Responses: Part I (July 30, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady In May, the Trump administration withdrew from the nuclear deal with Iran, officially known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). The European participants (the other signatories were the U.K., Russia, France, Germany and China) tried to convince President Trump that leaving the pact would be a mistake, but President Trump has… Read More »
Daily Comment (July 30, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Today we kick off central bank week. The BOE, BOJ and Fed all meet this week. The last meeting is probably of least consequence. Here is what we are watching: BOJ: The BOJ has clearly spooked the market; the Japanese central bank’s current policy is to… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (July 27, 2018)
by Asset Allocation Committee Last week, in a wide-ranging interview on CNBC,[1] President Trump ended a 25-year détente with the Federal Reserve, openly criticizing the current path of monetary policy. The president followed up the interview with numerous social media tweets, further criticizing policy tightening. Although it’s been a long time since a president weighed in… Read More »
Daily Comment (July 27, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It’s GDP day! We detail the data below but the quick take is that it was a very solid number, up 4.1%. Unfortunately, hyperbolic comments from the White House in front of the report increased the odds of disappointment. The initial market reaction is showing disappointment. … Read More »
Daily Comment (July 26, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] A deal…sort of: President Trump and EU Commission President Juncker announced a trade deal has been reached.[1] Equities rose, interest rates moved higher and the dollar eased as investors took the news as a “risk-off” event. We were surprised by the outcome. And, on its… Read More »