Research & News
Keller Quarterly (July 2018)
Letter to Investors The “choppiness” of the stock market, of which we wrote last quarter, continues. Even though the U.S. stock market, as represented by the S&P 500, has been working its way upward since early April, it still stands 2.6% below its high for this year (reached on January 26th). As we noted last… Read More »
Daily Comment (July 25, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Markets are quiet this morning, typical for mid-summer. Here is what we are watching: Juncker to the White House: The president of the EU Commission, Jean-Claude Juncker, visits the White House today.[1] It is expected he will offer the U.S. some sort of narrow trade pact… Read More »
Daily Comment (July 24, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It’s a quiet Tuesday so far. Equity markets are rising around the world and the White House has been mostly dormant this morning. Here is what we are watching: Chinese stimulus: Since the mid-1990s, China has managed its economy for high levels of growth. Most of… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Reflections on Politics and Populism: Part II (July 23, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady Last week, we defined important terms that shape the political alignments and examined the coalitions that mostly define the political sphere.[1] This week, we make some general observations of how the coalitions interact, discuss the “natural” pairings of the coalitions and examine historical examples. We will conclude with market ramifications. Observations There is… Read More »
Daily Comment (July 23, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Although it was a quiet weekend, we have had a busy morning. Here is what we are watching: Iran: There was media sniping this morning, which appears to have started in Iran. First, President Rouhani of Iran warned the U.S. not to escalate tensions with his… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (July 20, 2018)
by Asset Allocation Committee Although earnings are rising, equity markets have been range-bound since February. This chart shows the S&P 500; after peaking around 2870, prices have been in a range roughly from 2600 to 2800. Although monetary policy tightening is partly to blame, the Fed was lifting rates during the period when the market was… Read More »
Daily Comment (July 20, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] There is a lot going on. Let’s dig in: The president speaks: For the most part, President Trump has been opposed to a weak dollar. At Davos this year, Treasury Secretary Mnuchin suggested a weaker dollar might be in U.S. interests if the goal was a… Read More »
Daily Comment (July 19, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Global equity markets are lower this morning. The EuroStoxx 50 is down 0.3% from the last close. In Asia, the MSCI Asia Apex 50 was down 0.2% from the prior close. Chinese markets were down, with the Shanghai composite down 0.5% and the Shenzhen index down… Read More »
Asset Allocation Quarterly (Third Quarter 2018)
We expect that Fed policy will continue tightening through year-end, with as many as two additional increases in the fed funds rate in tandem with a measured reduction in the size of the Fed’s balance sheet, but the prospect for a recession is not included in our cyclical forecast. Our expectations are for continued GDP… Read More »
Daily Comment (July 18, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Equity markets are quiet this morning; the biggest market moves are in currencies and commodities. The dollar is up this morning in the aftermath of the Powell testimony, which is dragging commodities and emerging markets lower. Here is what we are watching: Google fined: Google (GOOG,… Read More »