Research & News
Daily Comment (July 31, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It’s July 31st, the Feast Day of St. Ignatius of Loyola, the founder of the Society of Jesus (Jesuits). Here is what we are watching: BREAKING: CHINA SEEKING NEW TRADE TALKS TO DEFUSE TRADE WAR. EQUITIES RISE ON NEWS. BOJ: The BOJ has spoken and not… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Iran Sanctions and Potential Responses: Part I (July 30, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady In May, the Trump administration withdrew from the nuclear deal with Iran, officially known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). The European participants (the other signatories were the U.K., Russia, France, Germany and China) tried to convince President Trump that leaving the pact would be a mistake, but President Trump has… Read More »
Daily Comment (July 30, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Today we kick off central bank week. The BOE, BOJ and Fed all meet this week. The last meeting is probably of least consequence. Here is what we are watching: BOJ: The BOJ has clearly spooked the market; the Japanese central bank’s current policy is to… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (July 27, 2018)
by Asset Allocation Committee Last week, in a wide-ranging interview on CNBC,[1] President Trump ended a 25-year détente with the Federal Reserve, openly criticizing the current path of monetary policy. The president followed up the interview with numerous social media tweets, further criticizing policy tightening. Although it’s been a long time since a president weighed in… Read More »
Daily Comment (July 27, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It’s GDP day! We detail the data below but the quick take is that it was a very solid number, up 4.1%. Unfortunately, hyperbolic comments from the White House in front of the report increased the odds of disappointment. The initial market reaction is showing disappointment. … Read More »
Daily Comment (July 26, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] A deal…sort of: President Trump and EU Commission President Juncker announced a trade deal has been reached.[1] Equities rose, interest rates moved higher and the dollar eased as investors took the news as a “risk-off” event. We were surprised by the outcome. And, on its… Read More »
Keller Quarterly (July 2018)
Letter to Investors The “choppiness” of the stock market, of which we wrote last quarter, continues. Even though the U.S. stock market, as represented by the S&P 500, has been working its way upward since early April, it still stands 2.6% below its high for this year (reached on January 26th). As we noted last… Read More »
Daily Comment (July 25, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Markets are quiet this morning, typical for mid-summer. Here is what we are watching: Juncker to the White House: The president of the EU Commission, Jean-Claude Juncker, visits the White House today.[1] It is expected he will offer the U.S. some sort of narrow trade pact… Read More »
Daily Comment (July 24, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It’s a quiet Tuesday so far. Equity markets are rising around the world and the White House has been mostly dormant this morning. Here is what we are watching: Chinese stimulus: Since the mid-1990s, China has managed its economy for high levels of growth. Most of… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Reflections on Politics and Populism: Part II (July 23, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady Last week, we defined important terms that shape the political alignments and examined the coalitions that mostly define the political sphere.[1] This week, we make some general observations of how the coalitions interact, discuss the “natural” pairings of the coalitions and examine historical examples. We will conclude with market ramifications. Observations There is… Read More »