Research & News
Daily Comment (November 4, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] The second episode of the Confluence of Ideas podcast is available! Happy Monday! Optimism reigns—everything is awesome! Trade optimism, helpful monetary policy, decent earnings and modest economic growth are propelling U.S. equities to new highs. The Saudi Aramco IPO is on. Here… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (November 1, 2019)
by Asset Allocation Committee We continue to hold a favorable outlook toward gold despite evidence that current prices may be getting a bit ahead of themselves. Our gold model puts fair value at 1391. In the coming months, we expect the fair value to rise; both the ECB and the Federal Reserve have resumed expanding their… Read More »
Daily Comment (November 1, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] The second episode of the Confluence of Ideas podcast is available! Happy employment Friday and All-Saints Day! We cover the data in detail below, but the quick take is that we have a strong report. Payrolls rose 128k compared to a forecast… Read More »
Daily Comment (October 31, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] The second episode of the Confluence of Ideas podcast is available! Happy Halloween! Not to scare, but today’s report is a long one as there is a lot of news to cover. We have a deep dive on the Fed meeting. China… Read More »
Daily Comment (October 30, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It’s Fed day! We discussed the FOMC meeting in detail yesterday; there’s a quick summary below. It’s also GDP day (see the Economic Releases section below for details). At long last, there will be elections in the U.K., and we also update… Read More »
Daily Comment (October 29, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] The S&P 500 hit a new record yesterday.[1] There is growing hope of a trade deal. The FOMC meeting begins today. Brexit continues. Here are the details: China trade: Contours of a trade deal, or ceasefire, are slowly emerging. There are reports… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Japan: Will the Tax Hike Bite? Part I (October 28, 2019)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA Even though Japan has one of the world’s largest economies and accounts for a hefty share of global stock market capitalization, it isn’t getting nearly as much attention from investors as it did during its boom years in the 1970s and 1980s. In part, that’s because Japan’s economic growth has become… Read More »
Daily Comment (October 28, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Good morning and happy Monday! It was a busy weekend in front of a busy week. Here are the details: Baghdadi dead: The leader of Islamic State (IS), Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, died over the weekend, killing himself with a suicide vest while… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (October 25, 2019)
by Asset Allocation Committee For nearly two years, the energy sector has dramatically underperformed the overall equity market and oil prices. This chart shows our S&P energy sector model. We regress the overall S&P 500 and oil prices against the energy sector. For most of the index’s history, these two variables explained much of the behavior… Read More »
Daily Comment (October 25, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Happy Friday! Markets are trading quietly this morning. We are watching Johnson’s attempt to bring elections, China/U.S. trade talks, Syria reports and Argentine elections. And, the EU moves to standard time this weekend. Here are the details: Brexit: PM Johnson has called… Read More »