Research & News
Daily Comment (October 24, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Good morning! It’s a rather quiet day in earnings season. Mario Draghi holds his last meeting as president of the ECB, Boris Johnson waits for the EU and we have an update on Syria. Here are the details: ECB: The statement held… Read More »
Daily Comment (October 23, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Good morning! An update on Brexit, Carrie Lam on the outs, trade update, Syria update and more on repo. Here are the details: Brexit: It was both a good and bad day for Boris. The good news is that his Brexit bill… Read More »
Daily Comment (October 22, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Good morning! It’s rather quiet in the markets this morning. Trudeau wins another term, but not a majority. The Brexit saga continues. No government in Israel. Some background on Chile. Here are the details: Trudeau wins: PM Trudeau won another term but… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The End of the Carter Doctrine: Part II (October 21, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady In Part I of this report, we identified the need to stabilize three areas of the world prone to war in order to maintain global peace. We focused on the Middle East and discussed the development of the Carter Doctrine, examining how the doctrine has been enforced since its inception. In this… Read More »
Daily Comment (October 21, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Note: After a long hiatus, we have resumed podcasting. Our new series, titled The Confluence of Ideas, begins with an overview of “Hegemonic Stability Theory” (the program title links to our podcast page). Our plan is to record a new episode about… Read More »
Keller Quarterly (October 2019)
Letter to Investors I recently had the opportunity to give a talk to a large group of investment advisors, many of whom were longtime friends. Even though we knew each other well, given the times we’re in I felt compelled to begin with a two-part preamble concerning investing that I sometimes give when speaking to… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (October 18, 2019)
by Asset Allocation Committee In 2017, we introduced an indicator of the basic health of the economy and added it to the many charts we monitor to gauge market conditions. The indicator is constructed using commodity prices, initial claims and consumer confidence. The thesis behind this indicator is that these three components should offer a simple… Read More »
Daily Comment (October 18, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Note: After a long hiatus, we have resumed podcasting. Our new series, titled The Confluence of Ideas, begins with an overview of “Hegemonic Stability Theory” (the program title links to our podcast page). Our plan is to record a new episode about… Read More »
Daily Comment (October 17, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] The EU and the PM Johnson have a deal. Trade news continues. Interesting items emerging from the financial markets. Here are the details: Brexit: In the wee small hours of the morning (at least in the U.S.), EU and U.K. negotiators made… Read More »