Research & News
Asset Allocation Weekly (November 15, 2019)
by Asset Allocation Committee The yield curve has steepened since the FOMC started cutting rates, raising hope that a recession can be avoided. In this report, we will examine whether these hopes make sense. The above chart shows two recession indicators from two different regional Federal Reserve banks, Atlanta and New York. The former is a… Read More »
Daily Comment (November 15, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] Episode #3 of our Confluence of Ideas podcast is now available. U.S. equity futures are modestly higher this morning. Lots of data today (see below). Some optimism on trade. Hong Kong is still very tense. Debt is on the rise. Here are… Read More »
Daily Comment (November 14, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] Episode #3 of our Confluence of Ideas podcast is now available. Hong Kong is deteriorating rapidly. Trade talks continue, but friction is emerging. Global economic data was ‘meh.’ Powell follows up his Congressional testimony today. Worries about disease. Here are all the… Read More »
Daily Comment (November 13, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] We are seeing some risk-off activity this morning as the markets digest the president’s speech yesterday. Chair Powell goes to Capitol Hill today. The IEA opines on energy. Turkey’s leader comes to Washington. Impeachment hearings begin today. Spain has a new coalition… Read More »
Daily Comment (November 12, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] It’s a quiet morning from the cold Midwest. Auto tariff delay expected. The president speaks in New York. Investment may be weakening, and imports offer a warning. Here is what we are watching this morning: Tariff delay: The decision on whether to… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Thirty Years Since the Fall of the Berlin Wall: A Retrospective, Part I (November 11, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady On August 13, 1961, the German Democratic Republic (GDR), otherwise known as East Germany, began construction on a barrier that would slow the emigration of Germans to the Federal Republic of Germany, known as West Germany. Prior to the construction of the wall, it is estimated that 3.5 million East Germans emigrated… Read More »
Daily Comment (November 11, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] It’s Veterans’ Day; Treasury markets are closed but equities trade today. Risk assets are lower this morning. A lot of global political news. Update on trade. Here is what we are watching this morning: Global political news: There was a plethora of… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (November 8, 2019)
by Asset Allocation Committee The Federal Reserve, in its Financial Accounts of the United States database,[1] has created a Distributional Financial Accounts sub-database that measures household wealth by percentile groups. The data is only reported in four broad categories (Top 1%, 90% to 99%, 50% to 89%, and bottom 50%) and has a fairly short history,… Read More »
Daily Comment (November 8, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] Market action is a bit odd this morning; risk-on assets are trading lower but risk-off are weaker as well. We suspect sentiment remains high but there are some concerns about the trade details. CEOs are much more pessimistic than the population, in… Read More »