Research & News
Daily Comment (October 16, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] The IMF gives details on weakening global growth. Brexit is at a crossroads. Trade tensions with China remain. Update on Syria. The National League has its pennant winner; the Cardinals, meanwhile, have much in common with private equity. The latter spent billions… Read More »
Daily Comment (October 15, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Commercial bankers come back to work today. The Middle East is a mess, but oil prices haven’t budged. There was little progress on Brexit, but hope remains. The Chinese trade deal continues to hit snags; China also released a batch of economic… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The End of the Carter Doctrine: Part I (October 14, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady In our 2018 Mid-Year Geopolitical Outlook we opened the report with an analysis of America’s evolving hegemony. We noted that America’s hegemonic narrative centered on containing communism. This factor united Americans to accept the burden of the superpower role. However, embedded in that commitment to contain communism was the “freezing” of three… Read More »
Daily Comment (October 14, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It’s Columbus Day! Treasury markets are closed but equity exchanges are open. Today looks like a “upon further review day” as markets reverse Friday’s optimism. Here are some of the details: Trade: After touting the progress made on Friday, the mood has… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (October 11, 2019)
by Asset Allocation Committee The financial markets have been roiled recently by the apparent shortage of liquidity in the repo markets. Our take is that the problem is twofold—there are regulatory problems that mean the banking system requires more in reserves than it did prior to the Great Financial Crisis, and there are likely industry concentration… Read More »
Daily Comment (October 11, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Happy Friday! It’s a day starting with great optimism. It appears that a mini-trade deal may have been struck with China. There seems to be progress on Brexit. On the darker side, an Iranian oil tanker was struck by missiles in the… Read More »
Daily Comment (October 10, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] As the Nationals staged a remarkable comeback to earn the right to play the Cardinals for the National League pennant, the financial markets were roiled over conflicting stories of the trade talks. Turkey threatens the EU. The EU issues an ultimatum to… Read More »
Daily Comment (October 9, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] On the eve of trade talks, hopes of a thaw are boosting risk markets this morning. Powell coos. Fed minutes at 2:00. Here is what we are watching today: Trade thaw? Equity futures lifted this morning on reports that China, despite all… Read More »