Research & News
Asset Allocation Weekly (March 9, 2018)
by Asset Allocation Committee Last year, we introduced an indicator of the basic health of the economy and added it to the many charts we monitor in gauging market conditions. The indicator is constructed with commodity prices, initial claims and consumer confidence. The thesis behind this indicator is that these three components should offer a simple… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Emperor Xi: Part I (March 5, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady On February 25th, the Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party (CPC) announced that it would recommend an end to term limits on the offices of president and vice president. Previously, an officeholder was limited to two five-year terms. We fully expect the recommendation to be approved (recommendations from the Central Committee are… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (March 2, 2018)
by Asset Allocation Committee The recent rise in long-duration yields has been partially blamed on rising inflation expectations. Although this reason is a possible explanation, the reality is that it’s more likely the fixed income markets are simply adjusting to a faster pace of policy tightening. In this report, we examine the differences between cyclical and… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Italian Elections: Part II (February 26, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady In Part I of this report we outlined the geopolitics of Italy and its political economy. This week, we continue the report with an analysis of the upcoming elections and Germany’s impact on the EU, concluding with potential market ramifications. The Election There are four major parties in Italy. Below we detail each… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (February 23, 2018)
by Asset Allocation Committee Last week, we discussed the impact of the growing fiscal deficit on the economy and markets. We did note that fiscal deficits have tended to weaken the dollar. This week, we want to expand on that analysis. To start, we note that fiscal policy does not operate in a vacuum. To measure… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (February 16, 2018)
by Asset Allocation Committee Do fiscal deficits matter? This is one of the more polarizing topics in economics. The recent tax bill and budget agreement will increase the deficit, which has led to all sorts of worries and claims. Here are a few observations: Politically, deficits matter to the party out of power. Protesting against deficits… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Italian Elections: Part I (February 12, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady (Due to President’s Day, the next report will be published on February 26.) Italy will hold elections on March 4, 2018. Given that recent elections in the Eurozone have run an emotional gamut, it is difficult to predict the outcome. There was great fear before last year’s elections in France that a National… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (February 9, 2018)
by Asset Allocation Committee The continued rise in long-term interest rates is clearly grabbing the attention of financial markets. Stronger than expected wage growth was the proximate cause of the recent lift in yields. Although overall wages rose 2.9%, wages for production and non-supervisory workers grew only 2.4%. Still, it is clear that fears of inflation… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Trump & Trade: The First Year (February 5, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady President Trump has been in office for just over one year, having been inaugurated on January 20, 2017. He campaigned on a populist agenda—anti-globalism was a core message. Specifically, his “America First” mantra railed against free trade deals, suggesting they were poorly negotiated, supported immigration restrictions and called on allies to shoulder more… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (February 2, 2018)
by Asset Allocation Committee The World Economic Forum in Davos was held recently and various comments were made about the dollar during the meetings. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin seemed to imply that the administration was talking the dollar lower, a violation of unwritten protocols that make it acceptable to have a weaker currency in support of growth… Read More »