Research & News
Weekly Energy Update (January 25, 2021)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF The report was delayed due to the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday. Here is an updated crude oil price chart. Commercial crude oil inventories unexpectedly rose 4.4 mb, when a decline of 1.3 mb was forecast. In the details, U.S. crude oil production was… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (January 22, 2021)
by Asset Allocation Committee | PDF In Charles Dickens’s novel A Tale of Two Cities, he writes, “It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness, it was the epoch of belief, it was the epoch of incredulity, it was… Read More »
Asset Allocation Quarterly (First Quarter 2021)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF The economic recovery is still in the early stages and we maintain that the expected path will be long and slow moving. The Federal Reserve, along with other global central banks, will likely continue to be aggressively accommodative. Another round of fiscal stimulus is expected, which should be… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (January 15, 2021)
by Asset Allocation Committee | PDF Rare events can be difficult for financial markets to accommodate. In general, prices in financial markets, which are the sum of estimates about the future, take a while to settle on the impact of something that doesn’t happen often. The recent pandemic, 9/11, the Great Financial Crisis, etc. are… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (January 14, 2021)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Here is an updated crude oil price chart. Prices are continuing to march higher. Commercial crude oil inventories fell 3.2 mb, in line with industry forecasts. In the details, U.S. crude oil production was unchanged at 11.0 mbpd. Exports fell 0.6 mbpd, while imports… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The U.S.-China Balance of Power: Part I (January 11, 2021)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF (Note: Due to Martin Luther King Jr. Day, our next WGR will be published on January 25.) We’ve often written in these reports that one of the most important challenges of the 21st century will be the geopolitical tensions generated as China strengthens and comes into ever greater competition… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (January 8, 2021)
by Asset Allocation Committee | PDF Although U.S. equity markets appear richly valued based on historical metrics, relative to interest rates, current values of relative earnings or sales are not extreme. Thus, the direction of interest rates and, more specifically, the direction of monetary policy, is a key element in equity values going forward. In… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (January 7, 2021)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Here is an updated crude oil price chart. Prices are moving higher on dollar weakness and the recent OPEC+ decision, discussed below. Commercial crude oil inventories fell 8.0 mb, well below the -1.5 mb draw forecast. The SPR was unchanged; there is still 3.1… Read More »