Research & News
Daily Comment (July 29, 2021)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Good morning. It’s GDP day! We cover the data for Q2 below in detail, but the quick view is that the annualized growth rose 6.5%, well below expectations. Equity markets are ticking higher, but we note that gold is up… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (July 29, 2021)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF After last week’s selling, prices have recovered back above $70 per barrel. (Source: Barchart.com) Crude oil inventories fell 4.1 mb compared to the 2.1 mb draw forecast. The SPR was unchanged this week. In the details, U.S. crude oil production fell 0.2 mbpd at… Read More »
Daily Comment (July 28, 2021)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF We begin today’s Comment with several items related to U.S. fiscal, monetary, and regulatory policy. We next turn to a range of international developments that highlight the growing risks of great-power military conflict in the future. We end with the… Read More »
Daily Comment (July 27, 2021)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF In today’s Comment, we open with multiple global and U.S. developments touching on taxes, fiscal policy, monetary policy, and labor market regulation. Next, we discuss a variety of foreign news ranging from the sharp drop in Chinese stocks stemming from… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Protests in Cuba (July 26, 2021)
by Bill O’Grady | PDF Over the past two weeks, Cuba has been racked with widespread protests. As this map suggests, the civil unrest was scattered across the island nation. The widespread nature of the protests suggests some degree of coordination (and, it appears there was). Two groups, the San Isidro Movement and the 27N… Read More »
Keller Quarterly (July 2021)
Letter to Investors | PDF Judging by the questions we’ve received in the last couple of months, the stock and bond markets have confused many. This is OK. Trying to explain why the markets have recently done something is an impossible task. In a former life I was regularly asked by business reporters why the… Read More »
Daily Comment (July 26, 2021)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Good morning and happy Monday! U.S. equity futures are modestly in the red this morning, taking a rest from recent new highs. Our coverage today begins with China—lots of things going on in markets and geopolitics. From there, we move… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (July 23, 2021)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF The availability of ample investment capital is vital for economic growth in both rich, well-developed countries and poorer developing nations. However, if the available capital is poorly utilized and/or debt levels get too high, the results can be quite negative. In such a situation, economic growth can slow… Read More »
Daily Comment (July 23, 2021)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Good morning and happy Friday! The Olympics officially open today (although the competition has already started). Sadly, for the organizers, things are not going all that well. The pandemic has led to empty arenas, the opening music has been scrapped… Read More »