Research & News
Asset Allocation Weekly (August 6, 2021)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF In last week’s report, we updated our views on long-duration Treasuries, using our standard 10-year T-note model. This week we are going to examine the impact of policy on long-duration Treasuries. First, let’s start with the model. The two most important variables in the model are fed funds… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (August 5, 2021)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF After last week’s recovery, selling has resumed; this week’s data and fears of weaker demand due to COVID-19 are pressuring prices. (Source: Barchart.com) Crude oil inventories unexpectedly rose 3.6 mb compared to the 3.2 mb draw forecast. The SPR was unchanged this week. In… Read More »
Daily Comment (August 5, 2021)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Good morning. Overall, it’s a rather quiet trading day so far. U.S. equity futures are edging higher, although recent market action suggests it may not hold. Our coverage begins with comments from Fed officials who are signaling the end of… Read More »
Daily Comment (August 4, 2021)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Today’s Comment opens with just one U.S. issue related to cryptocurrency regulation. We then review a number of foreign items that could impact the financial markets today, including news of another apparent Iranian attack on a ship in the Persian… Read More »
Daily Comment (August 3, 2021)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF In today’s Comment, we open with a review of various U.S. developments related to fiscal policy, the labor market, and the natural gas market. We discuss several international items that could affect the financial markets today. Finally, we take a… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Power, Influence, and Leadership in Geopolitics (August 2, 2021)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Xi Jinping. Donald Trump. Vladimir Putin. Ronald Reagan. Nelson Mandela. When it comes to understanding geopolitics, most of us probably focus on the powerful, visionary leaders who can drive events forward toward their goals. But few of us really try to think systematically about the characteristics that make a… Read More »
Daily Comment (August 2, 2021)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Good morning and happy Monday! It’s the first trading day of August (a time of the year often unfriendly to equities), and U.S. equity futures are pointing to a higher open. Our coverage begins with an incident off the coast… Read More »
Daily Comment (July 30, 2021)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Good morning, all! U.S. equities appear to be headed for a lower open this morning. Equities have fallen due to concerns over the tech sector as investors fear disappointing earnings reports and a continued tech crackdown by China. Our report… Read More »