Tag: outlook

Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – The 2025 Geopolitical Outlook (December 16, 2024)

Posted on by Amanda Ahne

by the Confluence Macroeconomic Team  | PDF

(This is the final BWGR of 2024; the next report will be published on January 13, 2025.)

Each December, we at Confluence publish our annual Geopolitical Outlook to give readers a sense of the issues that will likely dominate the international landscape in the coming year. We don’t necessarily make predictions in this document. Rather, we aim to alert readers to the probable key issues in the coming year or even beyond. The likely developments we identify aren’t meant to be an exhaustive list. We instead focus on the major big-picture conditions that we believe will deeply affect policy and markets going forward. We list the issues in order of importance.

Issue #1: The Next Evolution of American Hegemony

Issue #2: Less Cohesion in the US Bloc, More Cohesion in the China Bloc

Issue #3: China’s Economic Growth Slows Further, But Not Its Military

Issue #4: European Politics Shift Further to the Right

Issue #5: The Middle East Struggles to Regain Peace

Issue #6: Canada and Mexico Adjust to Trump 2.0

Read the full report

Don’t miss our accompanying podcasts, available on our website and most podcast platforms: Apple | Spotify 
The podcast episode for this particular edition is posted under the Confluence of Ideas series.

Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Mid-Year Geopolitical Outlook: Uncertainty Reigns (June 17, 2024)

Posted on by Amanda Ahne

by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, Thomas Wash, Daniel Ortwerth, CFA, and Bill O-Grady | PDF

As the first half draws to a close, we typically update our geopolitical outlook for the remainder of the year. This report is less a series of predictions as it is a list of potential geopolitical issues that we believe will dominate the international landscape for the rest of the year. The report is not designed to be exhaustive. Rather, it focuses on the “big picture” conditions that we think will affect policy and markets going forward. We have subtitled this report “Uncertainty Reigns” to reflect the fact that chaos and unpredictability have become entrenched as the post-Cold War era of globalization gives way to a new period of Great Power competition. Our issues are listed in order of importance.

Issue #1: China – South China Sea

Issue #2: Russia-Ukraine-NATO

Issue #3: Israel-Hamas-Iran

Issue #4: The US Elections

Issue #5: US Defense Rebuilding

Issue #6: Global Monetary Policy

Read the full report

Don’t miss our accompanying podcasts, available on our website and most podcast platforms: Apple | Spotify