Research & News
Asset Allocation Quarterly (Fourth Quarter 2021)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF Although we expect the recovery’s rapid pace of growth to slow markedly, we believe the probability of a recession within our three-year forecast period is low. Supply shortages, labor issues, and their attendant impact on inflation are expected to abate over the next 12-18 months, leading to our… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (October 21, 2021)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF [N.B. Today’s report was delayed one day due to the Columbus/Indigenous Day holiday.] Prices have moved above $80 per barrel. (Source: Barchart.com) Crude oil inventories unexpectedly fell 0.4 mb compared to a 2.0 mb build forecast. The SPR declined 1.7 mb, meaning the net… Read More »
Keller Quarterly (October 2021)
Letter to Investors | PDF Before I begin to tap on the keyboard and write these quarterly letters, I always pick up the last few letters to remind myself what I recently wrote. I don’t want to appear ignorant of past comments, nor do I want to ignore a prognostication that proved to be incorrect.… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Revisiting Thucydides (October 18, 2021)
by Bill O’Grady | PDF The Thucydides Trap is an idea that comes from the ancient Greek historian of the same name who described a situation where the incumbent superpower of the time, Sparta, was faced with an insurgent power, Athens. The two powers ended up in a ruinous war. Thucydides postulated that when an… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly – Globalization Isn’t What It Used to Be (October 15, 2021)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF The inhabitant of London could order by telephone, sipping his morning tea in bed, the various products of the whole earth, in such quantity as he might see fit, and reasonably expect their early delivery upon his doorstep…But, most important of all, he regarded this state of affairs… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (October 15, 2021)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF [N.B. Today’s report was delayed one day due to the Columbus/Indigenous Day holiday.] Prices have moved above $80 per barrel. (Source: Barchart.com) Crude oil inventories rose 6.1 mb compared to the 1.1 build forecast. The SPR declined 0.8 mb, meaning the net draw was… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – AUKUS (October 11, 2021)
by Bill O’Grady | PDF On September 15, the leaders of the U.S., U.K., and Australia announced a new security relationship which includes a nuclear submarine arrangement with Australia. Although it will likely take a couple of decades before Australia will have its own indigenous nuclear propulsion vessels, the treaty means that the U.S. and… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly – Has Bitcoin Become a Substitute for Gold? (October 8, 2021)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF Over the last half-decade, one of the most dramatic developments in finance has been investors’ embrace of cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin. Once considered merely an exotic technology with little relevance to investment portfolios, Bitcoin has now become a popular tool for investing. One reason for its popularity is… Read More »