Research & News
2022 Outlook: The Year of Fat Tails (December 16, 2021)
by Mark Keller, CFA, Bill O’Grady, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Summary: We don’t expect a recession in 2022. Real GDP growth will range between 3.0% to 3.5%. Inflation remains elevated, though price pressures will likely subside in H2 2022. We expect the core PCE deflator, the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation, to… Read More »
Daily Comment (December 16, 2021)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] | PDF Note to readers: The Daily Comment will go on holiday after Friday’s comment and return on January 3, 2022. From all of us at Confluence Investment Management, have a Merry Christmas and Happy New Year! Good morning! So far this… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (December 16, 2021)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF (The Weekly Energy Update will go on hiatus until January 6, 2022. To all our readers, Merry Christmas and Happy New Year.) After recovering last week, oil prices have started to drift lower. Worries about rising production and weakening demand due to the Omicron… Read More »
Daily Comment (December 15, 2021)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] | PDF Note to readers: The Daily Comment will go on holiday after Friday’s comment and return on January 3, 2022. From all of us at Confluence Investment Management, have a Merry Christmas and Happy New Year! We open today’s Comment with… Read More »
Daily Comment (December 14, 2021)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] | PDF Note to readers: The Daily Comment will go on holiday after Friday’s comment and return on January 3, 2022. From all of us at Confluence Investment Management, have a Merry Christmas and Happy New Year! In today’s Comment, we open… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The 2022 Geopolitical Outlook (December 13, 2021)
by Bill O’Grady & Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF (This is the last WGR of 2021; the next report will be published on January 18, 2022. Starting in 2022, we will shift to a bi-weekly publication schedule and will add a new Geopolitical Podcast with each report.) As is our custom, in mid-December, we publish… Read More »
Daily Comment (December 13, 2021)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] | PDF Note to readers: The Daily Comment will go on holiday after Friday’s comment and return on January 3, 2022. From all of us at Confluence Investment Management, have a Merry Christmas and Happy New Year! Good morning and happy Monday!… Read More »
Daily Comment (December 10, 2021)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] | PDF Good morning! Today’s report begins with a discussion about Starbucks (SBUX, USD,115.35). We then turn to U.S. economic and policy news, followed by China-related stories. International news is next, and we end with our pandemic coverage. Baristas in a Starbucks… Read More »