Research & News
Asset Allocation Weekly – The Omicron Problem (December 10, 2021)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF Over the Thanksgiving holiday, news broke that a new variant of COVID-19 had been isolated in South Africa. This new variant has an usually high number of mutations, which increases the likelihood that current immunity will be compromised. In other words, prior infection or inoculation will probably be… Read More »
Daily Comment (December 9, 2021)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] | PDF Good morning! After several days of risk-on, today is shaping up as a risk-off session. Our coverage begins with economics and policy, where we discuss yesterday’s JOLTS data and inflation. Tomorrow we get CPI, and there are worries we will… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (December 9, 2021)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Oil prices fell sharply on SPR sales and due to the Omicron variant of COVID-19. Crude oil inventories fell 0.9 mb compared to a 1.4 mb build forecast. The SPR declined 1.9 mb, meaning the net draw was 2.9 mb (due to rounding). In… Read More »
Daily Comment (December 8, 2021)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Today’s Comment begins with a range of U.S. news, including a detailed readout from President Biden’s call with Russian President Putin yesterday. We next turn to international news, including an important report on how the Chinese government is planning to… Read More »
Daily Comment (December 7, 2021)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF In today’s Comment, we open with a range of developments touching on the U.S. relationship with other major powers, including China and Russia. We then move on to other international developments. We close with the latest news related to the… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Plunging U.S. Service Exports (December 6, 2021)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF When people think about a country’s exports, imports, and trade balance, they often focus only on physical goods (sometimes referred to as “commodities” or “merchandise”). That makes some sense, given that physical goods account for the majority of international trade for most countries. Trade in physical goods can also… Read More »
Daily Comment (December 6, 2021)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Good morning and happy Monday! Financial markets remain choppy this morning. U.S. equity futures are generally higher, as is oil. Meanwhile, moderate temperatures in the U.S. are sending natural gas prices plunging, with nearest futures off nearly 10%. Inflation data… Read More »
Daily Comment (December 3, 2021)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Good morning. U.S. equity futures are signaling a higher open. Today’s report begins with U.S. economic and policy news followed by our roundup of China-related stores. International news is next, and we conclude with our pandemic coverage. Economics and policy:… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly – An Update on Gold (December 3, 2021)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF Gold moved steadily higher from the late summer of 2018 into August 2020. Prices then declined toward 1,700 and have since traced out a trading range between 1,700 and 1,900. In this report, we will update our views on the metal. (Source: Barchart.com) We have been holding gold… Read More »