Research & News
Daily Comment (August 27, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It’s a solemn Monday as the nation mourns the passing of Sen. John McCain. It is dominating the media’s focus. It is also the last week of summer and it is clear that trading desks are thin and quiet. Here is what we are watching today:… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (August 24, 2018)
by Asset Allocation Committee What is price stability? The working definition for the Federal Reserve was crafted by Alan Greenspan in 1994, when he suggested that price stability has been achieved when “…households and businesses need not factor expectations of changes in the average level of prices into their decisions.”[1] In other words, a central bank… Read More »
Daily Comment (August 24, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Happy Friday! Markets are fairly quiet this morning. Here is what we are watching today: Powell speaks: The Jackson Hole meeting is underway. Chair Powell will start speaking around 10:00 EDT. We don’t expect anything other than “steady as she goes,” meaning at least one more… Read More »
Daily Comment (August 22, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] We are seeing a bit of risk-off this morning on the big political stories from yesterday. However, the emphasis is on “bit”; equity weakness isn’t excessive, the dollar is modestly weaker, gold is higher but not by a lot and Treasury yields are down but no… Read More »
Daily Comment (August 21, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] The big story today is a bit of dollar weakness, which is putting some upward pressure on interest rates and helping precious metals. Here is what we are watching today: Trump talks: In a wide-ranging interview,[1] President Trump warned not to expect much from the Chinese… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Turkey Crisis: Part I (August 20, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady Over the past few months, Turkey has become a major topic of interest. Recep Erdogan won re-election to the presidency in June 2018. This event was important because a referendum on a new constitution in 2017 gave the office of the president sweeping powers; the previous constitution was based on a parliamentary model… Read More »
Daily Comment (August 20, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It’s Monday…back to the salt mines! It’s a “green” day so far this morning—equities are higher, but so are longer duration Treasury prices and beleaguered metals are even bouncing a bit higher. The dollar is a bit lower. Here is what we are watching today: Turkey… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (August 17, 2018)
by Asset Allocation Committee Last week, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released the CPI data for July. Inflation continues to rise; the overall rate rose 2.9% and the closely watched core rate (the rate less food and energy) rose to 2.4%, the highest rate since September 2008. Rising inflation raises policy concerns. In this week’s report,… Read More »
Daily Comment (August 17, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Happy Friday! It’s a mixed market situation and somewhat less volatile than action earlier in the week. Here is what we are watching today: End of quarterly earnings? President Trump tweeted[1] this morning that he is directing the SEC to study the costs and benefits of… Read More »
Daily Comment (August 16, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] A bit of risk-on has returned this morning. Trade hopes appear to be the key reason. The dollar is a bit weaker, while equities and commodities are higher as are Treasury yields. Here is what we are watching today: China trade talks: China is sending the… Read More »