Research & News
Asset Allocation Weekly (January 10, 2020)
by Asset Allocation Committee In our 2020 Outlook, we discussed three risks to the forecast, with one of them being a “melt-up” or a dramatic rise in stock prices. One of the key factors that could bolster higher prices for risk assets would be the idea that the FOMC has engineered a soft landing, which is… Read More »
Daily Comment (January 10, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] Happy employment day Friday! We cover the data in detail below, but the quick take is that the data is a bit soft as nonfarm payrolls rose by only 145k, less than the 165k forecast. The big news was a plunge in… Read More »
Daily Comment (January 9, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] Financial markets are taking on a clear risk-on bias; equities continue to lift, bonds, gold and oil are struggling. Here are the details: Ceasefire: As we noted yesterday, Iran launched missiles against U.S. bases in Iraq. The attack was a mere pinprick,… Read More »
Daily Comment (January 8, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] After a wild overnight session, risk assets are rising this morning. Here are the details: About last night: As we were watching the Blues dispatch the Sharks, Iran launched a series of missile strikes against two bases in Iraq. Market reaction was… Read More »
Daily Comment (January 7, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] Financial and commodity markets are rather quiet this morning as we await Iran’s response. Investor sentiment is starting to recover as risk assets are recovering. China reported its foreign reserves. We are watching a new pneumonia emerging from China. As a side… Read More »
Daily Comment (January 6, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] Happy Monday! It’s another risk off morning, as issues surrounding Iran dominate the news and the markets. We update the situation in the Middle East this morning. In other news, Hong Kong has a new administrator and Phase One of the U.S./China… Read More »
Daily Comment (January 3, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] The fifth episode of the Confluence of Ideas podcast has been posted. “Arriving at Decisions” examines the issues that surround making decisions under conditions of uncertainty. Happy Friday! With the world still in New Year’s holiday mode, there’s little interesting news in… Read More »
Daily Comment (January 2, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] The fifth episode of the Confluence of Ideas podcast has been posted. “Arriving at Decisions” examines the issues that surround making decisions under conditions of uncertainty. Happy New Year everyone! Global equities began 2020 with a bang, as markets responded favorably to… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (December 20, 2019)
by Asset Allocation Committee (N.B. This is our last Asset Allocation Weekly for 2019. The next edition will be published January 10, 2020.) Did the Fed engineer a soft landing? That is the critical question for 2020. If the Fed, through its rate cuts last year,[1] has rescued the economy, it would be one of the… Read More »