Research & News
Daily Comment (August 30, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It’s the last business day of “cultural summer” (the autumn equinox doesn’t occur until September 23), but the summer season generally ends with Labor Day. Trade optimism continues to buoy equities. There are elections in Germany over the weekend. Hurricane Dorian is… Read More »
Daily Comment (August 29, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Risk-on has returned on trade optimism. Italy has a government. Brexit thoughts. Fifty-year T-bonds? Here are the details and other items we are watching: China: Equity futures rebounded after China indicated that it would not retaliate against the latest U.S. tariff increases. … Read More »
Daily Comment (August 28, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It’s midweek; halfway to Labor Day weekend! Boris moves against Parliament, Parliament moves against Boris and we are reacting to the Bill Dudley op-ed. Here are the details and other items we are watching: Brexit: For the first time since 1948, PM… Read More »
Quarterly Energy Comment (August 27, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady The Oil Market Since June, oil prices have held within a range of $50 to $60 per barrel. After a sharp decline in prices from late May into early June, due in part to a contra-seasonal build in inventories, inventories fell and oil prices rebounded. Rising tensions with Iran added to the… Read More »
Daily Comment (August 27, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Good morning! After several days of stomach-turning gyrations, things are rather quiet this morning. Here is what we are watching: Italy: Today is the deadline day for the center-left and populist-left to try to cobble together a coalition. The news is mixed. … Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Meet Boris Johnson (August 26, 2019)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA (Due to the Labor Day holiday, our next report will be published on September 9.) The great forest fires that consumed swaths of the West in recent years have finally revealed the danger from a century of excessive fire suppression. Humanity’s natural drive to control the environment has left forests overgrown… Read More »
Daily Comment (August 26, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It’s Monday in late August, the last one of summer. Global equity markets moved full circle overnight. Here is what we are watching: The trade war: We were in the midst of writing Friday’s comment when China announced its retaliation against the… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (August 23, 2019)
by Asset Allocation Committee Recession worries have increased due to falling long-duration interest rates and the short-lived inversion of the two-year/10-year T-note spread. Although this spread is important, it is merely one in a whole series of permutations of the yield curve. Our preferred measure is the 10-year/fed funds spread because it measures the long end… Read More »
Daily Comment (August 23, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Happy Friday! It’s quiet this morning in front of Chair Powell’s presentation. Here is what we are watching: BREAKING: China to levy tariffs on another $75 bn of U.S. exports. Bonds and gold rally, while equities, oil and copper decline. Oil, soybeans… Read More »