Research & News
Daily Comment (September 24, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Good morning! Boris gets bad news. Europe is turning on Iran. China is looking to control its large firms. President Trump will address the U.N. General Assembly today. Here is what we are watching this morning: The U.K. Supreme court rules against… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Weaponizing the Dollar: The Nuclear Option, Part II (September 23, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady In Part I of this report, we reviewed the U.S. current account problem and examined how the persistent deficit affects the economy. We also discussed how the U.S. current account deficit is tied to American hegemony and ways the deficit could be addressed. This week, using the background established in Part I,… Read More »
Daily Comment (September 23, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Happy Monday! It’s the Autumnal Equinox today. For sports fans, it’s a wonderful time of year. Baseball playoffs are being set. The NFL is in full swing, and college football is operating too. The NHL preseason has begun. The GM strike rolls… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (September 20, 2019)
by Asset Allocation Committee Interest rates have increased since early September. The 10-year T-note yield dipped to 1.45% in early September but has risen strongly since then. What has prompted this rise? Some of the rise appears to be caused by a revaluation of the path of monetary policy. The chart on the left shows the… Read More »
Daily Comment (September 20, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Global equity markets are generally higher this morning. The EuroStoxx 50 is up 0.4% from the last close. In Asia, the MSCI Asia Apex 50 closed up 0.1%. Chinese markets were higher, with the Shanghai composite up 0.2% and the Shenzhen index… Read More »
Daily Comment (September 19, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] The FOMC meeting turned out hawkish. Other central banks were active today. Trade negotiators from China begin talks in the U.S. today. Here is what we are watching this morning: Hawkish Fed: The FOMC did cut rates by 25 bps but nearly… Read More »
Daily Comment (September 18, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Markets are stable this morning after a wild day in the overnight lending market. The Israeli elections did not yield a clear result. The FOMC meeting concludes today. Here is what we are watching this morning: The funding problem: We have received… Read More »
Daily Comment (September 17, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] After a wild day yesterday, markets are rather quiet. The FOMC meeting starts today, the new Saudi energy minister is conducting his first press conference at 1:15, and Israel is holding elections. Here is what we are watching this morning: The aftermath… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Weaponizing the Dollar: The Nuclear Option, Part I (September 16, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady Last month, we wrote a two-part report on weaponizing the dollar.[1] The continued strength of the dollar has become newsworthy recently, prompting us to provide an update to those earlier reports and include an analysis of groundbreaking new legislation that was introduced in the Senate. In Part I of this report, we… Read More »
Daily Comment (September 16, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It’s Fed week, but the big news is that financial and oil markets are roiled by an attack on Saudi Arabia’s (KSA) oil infrastructure. Here is what we are watching this morning: The attack of the Houthis? Houthis in Yemen have claimed… Read More »