Research & News
Asset Allocation Weekly (September 27, 2019)
by Asset Allocation Committee Over the past few months, we have been on “recession watch.” Our position is that the odds of a downturn are elevated but it is too soon to fully position for a downturn. The inversion of yield curves is a reliable recession warning. On the other hand, the economic data continues to… Read More »
Daily Comment (September 27, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Hurray for Friday! It has been a tumultuous week as we approach the end of Q3. Markets are generally quiet this morning. U.S. economic data was a bit soft (see below). There are two elections over the weekend, in Afghanistan and Austria.… Read More »
Daily Comment (September 26, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Markets are rather quiet this morning. The IMF has a new leader. The head of the DNI testifies today before the House and Senate Intelligence Committees. The House testimony will be public, while the Senate will be closed. We expect the media… Read More »
Daily Comment (September 25, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Good Morning. Global equity markets are under pressure this morning on sentiment concerns. Here is what we are watching: A volatile day: Yesterday was a volatile day in the financial markets as two issues dominated. The U.N. speech: President Trump’s address to… Read More »
Daily Comment (September 24, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Good morning! Boris gets bad news. Europe is turning on Iran. China is looking to control its large firms. President Trump will address the U.N. General Assembly today. Here is what we are watching this morning: The U.K. Supreme court rules against… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Weaponizing the Dollar: The Nuclear Option, Part II (September 23, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady In Part I of this report, we reviewed the U.S. current account problem and examined how the persistent deficit affects the economy. We also discussed how the U.S. current account deficit is tied to American hegemony and ways the deficit could be addressed. This week, using the background established in Part I,… Read More »
Daily Comment (September 23, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Happy Monday! It’s the Autumnal Equinox today. For sports fans, it’s a wonderful time of year. Baseball playoffs are being set. The NFL is in full swing, and college football is operating too. The NHL preseason has begun. The GM strike rolls… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (September 20, 2019)
by Asset Allocation Committee Interest rates have increased since early September. The 10-year T-note yield dipped to 1.45% in early September but has risen strongly since then. What has prompted this rise? Some of the rise appears to be caused by a revaluation of the path of monetary policy. The chart on the left shows the… Read More »
Daily Comment (September 20, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Global equity markets are generally higher this morning. The EuroStoxx 50 is up 0.4% from the last close. In Asia, the MSCI Asia Apex 50 closed up 0.1%. Chinese markets were higher, with the Shanghai composite up 0.2% and the Shenzhen index… Read More »