by Bill O’Grady
Almost two years ago we published a series on the 2016 elections. In these three reports we suggested that rising discontent among the electorate could increase the odds of electing a president that may turn America away from the superpower role. Although there have been a number of surprises in the current nominating process, some of the trends we discussed in these reports have come to pass. In addition, the underlying causes of discord we identified appear to be the driving force in the current political turmoil.
In this report, we will review the three issues related to the superpower role that the establishment has failed to properly address which have led to the rise of unconventional candidates. Next, we will examine the current primary season, focusing on the two major populist candidates, and discuss the reaction of the establishment thus far. As always, we will conclude with market ramifications and a short discussion about the long-term changes that the rise of populism may entail.