Research & News
Asset Allocation Weekly (December 13, 2019)
by Asset Allocation Committee The recent employment report was very strong, with payroll growth rising more than forecast and the unemployment rate declining more than expected. One uncertainty that develops when labor markets tighten is the point at which wage growth begins to lift inflation. This chart shows yearly wage growth and the unemployment rate (inverted… Read More »
Daily Comment (December 13, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] Happy Friday the 13th! For the past four years, financial markets have been dealing with elevated levels of uncertainty. The issue of Brexit dominated the EU, policy shifts by the Trump administration and assertive policies from China all contributed to uncertainty. This… Read More »
Daily Comment (December 12, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] Markets are quiet today but there is a lot going on. The U.K. is voting today; so is Algeria. Israel is facing yet another election. Legarde holds her first ECB meeting. We recap the Fed meeting. The trade situation is updated. We… Read More »
Daily Comment (December 11, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] Looking for something to listen to while shopping? Episode #4 of the Confluence of Ideas Podcast is now available. It’s all about the Equality/Efficiency Cycle. Enjoy!\ Happy Fed Day! The FOMC meets today; there are no expectations of a rate change, but… Read More »
Daily Comment (December 10, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] Looking for something to listen to while shopping? Episode #4 of the Confluence of Ideas Podcast is now available. It’s all about the Equality/Efficiency Cycle. Enjoy! Equities were trending lower this morning; worries about new tariffs scheduled for Dec. 15th were blamed. … Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Ukraine Under Zelensky (December 9, 2019)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA Because of the congressional impeachment inquiry into President Trump, people are hearing a lot about Ukraine and its new president, Volodymyr Zelensky. However, it’s important to remember that Ukraine and its new leader are significant in their own right. Russia has been keeping Ukraine under intense geopolitical pressure for the last… Read More »
Daily Comment (December 9, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] Looking for something to listen to while shopping? Episode #4 of the Confluence of Ideas Podcast is now available. It’s all about the Equality/Efficiency Cycle. Enjoy! Happy Monday! It’s a busy week, with the Fed and ECB meeting, elections in the U.K.… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (December 6, 2019)
by Asset Allocation Committee In 2017, we introduced an indicator of the basic health of the economy and added it to the many charts we monitor to gauge market conditions. The indicator is constructed using commodity prices, initial claims and consumer confidence. The thesis behind this indicator is that these three components should offer a simple… Read More »
Daily Comment (December 6, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] Happy employment day Friday! We cover the data below, but the quick read is that the report was a blowout—payrolls rose much more than forecast and the unemployment rate fell. It is bullish for equities, bearish for gold and Treasuries. In other… Read More »