Research & News
Daily Comment (January 27, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] Global equity and commodity markets continue to sink on the Wuhan virus. The U.K. prepares to officially leave the EU on Friday. The Fed meets this week as it considers new tools. Italian markets get some positive news. Here is what we… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (January 24, 2020)
by Asset Allocation Committee One of the risks we noted in the 2020 Outlook: Storm Watch was the potential for a “melt-up.” On the one hand, seeing a parabolic rise in equities seems like a positive. On the other, a rise of significant magnitude only occurs because of a surge of late buyers; these latecomers usually… Read More »
Daily Comment (January 24, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] Happy Friday! Davos continues, and the coronavirus continues to dominate the news on the eve of the “year of the rat.” Here is what we are watching this morning: Coronavirus: The virus has now been blamed for 25 fatalities and has infected… Read More »
Daily Comment (January 23, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] Davos continues, the ECB meets, but it’s the coronavirus dominating the news. The U.S. is setting its trade sights on the EU. Here is what we are watching this morning: Coronavirus: The latest death toll is 17 and the number of confirmed… Read More »
Asset Allocation Quarterly (First Quarter 2020)
The U.S. election season and the more dovish composition of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors should ensure policy accommodation continues in the near-term. The recent resolution of trade policies with China and the prospect for finalization of USMCA produces an environment where corporate capital can be deployed with less uncertainty. Although we hold a… Read More »
Daily Comment (January 22, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] Davos continues, impeachment dominates the news (but has no discernable impact on financial markets) and we continue to monitor the coronavirus. Lebanon gets a new government, Norway’s fails and Italy’s might be close to failing. Here is what we are watching this… Read More »
Daily Comment (January 21, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] It’s Davos week! World leaders in politics, business, academia and media are all gathering in Davos, Switzerland. Your Daily Comment team is skipping the event this year, remaining in picturesque downtown Webster Groves instead. It’s a risk-off market this morning as the… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (January 17, 2020)
by Asset Allocation Committee The December employment data showed three interesting developments that are worth discussing. They are wage growth, hours worked and the level of “out of the workforce.” Wage growth: For most of last year, production and non-supervisory wage growth was outpacing that of overall workers. This development suggested that ordinary workers were finally… Read More »
Daily Comment (January 17, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] Happy Friday! Equity markets continue to grind steadily higher to new record levels. The White House officially nominated the two last open governor positions on the FOMC. An update on the Iran missile attack and other Iran issues. Germany is holding a… Read More »
Daily Comment (January 16, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] Good morning! Equity markets continue to grind steadily higher; in fact, it’s the third longest streak since 1995 of the major indices not moving more than 1% in either direction. Why? Our quick take is that we are seeing the combination of… Read More »