Research & News
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Revisiting Scheidel’s Horsemen: Part I (April 20, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady Although we do cover current events in the Weekly Geopolitical Report, we also try to anticipate changes that may be a consequence of current situations. The COVID-19 crisis is just such an occasion. We regularly update the current path of the virus in our Daily Comment, but we will consider the longer-term… Read More »
Daily Comment (April 20, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Good morning and happy Monday! Equities are lower this morning, but the market catching most of the attention is oil. In equities, there is a large short position developing against the S&P 500. We update the COVID-19 news. Here are the details:… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (April 17, 2020)
by Asset Allocation Committee The Federal Reserve’s aggressive expansion of its balance sheet has been in response to fears of systemic risk. The experience of the 2008 Great Financial Crisis has made it clear that systemic risk can occur from a myriad of different parts of the financial system, so the Fed has broadened its support… Read More »
Daily Comment (April 17, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Good morning and happy Friday! Equities are rebounding this morning on a positive drug trial. China’s GDP turns negative. We update the COVID-19 news. Here are the details: COVID-19: The number of reported cases is 2,169,022 with 146,071 deaths and 522,264 (yes,… Read More »
Daily Comment (April 16, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Good morning! Equities are rebounding this morning. We update the COVID-19 news and initial claims. The Weekly Energy Update is available. Here are the details: COVID-19: The number of reported cases is 2,076,015 with 138,000 deaths and 522,881 recoveries. Here is the… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (April 16, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA Crude oil inventories rose 19.2 mb compared to the forecast rise of 11.6 mb. In the details, U.S. crude oil production fell 0.1 mbpd to 12.3 mbpd. Exports rose 0.6 mbpd, while imports declined 0.2 mbpd. Refining activity fell 6.5%, well more than the 2.2% decline… Read More »
Daily Comment (April 15, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Today’s risk-off stance in the markets comes as we’re finally getting earnings and economic data that more fully reflect the impact of the coronavirus crisis. Several figures have come in worse than anticipated (see below), tempering the recent positive vibe from government… Read More »
Daily Comment (April 14, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Today’s uptick in the markets appears to stem in large part from chatter about COVID-19 lockdown restrictions being eased in the coming weeks. Of course, other data shows that in some countries new virus cases and deaths are still rising strongly, so… Read More »
Daily Comment (April 13, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Good morning! Equities are modestly lower this morning; oil is steady. We update the COVID-19 news. OPEC+ has a deal. Some comments on the Fed. Here are the details: COVID-19: The official number of global cases is 1,860,011 with 114,983 fatalities and… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (April 9, 2020)
by Asset Allocation Committee One of the more controversial issues of the past bull market was the impact of share buybacks. The way we like to frame that issue is with the S&P 500 divisor. The divisor is a number that is used to smooth out the index; when stocks leave the index, through replacement or… Read More »