Research & News

Daily Comment (March 6, 2017)

by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] There were two news stories of note over the weekend.  First, President Trump accused the previous administration of wiretapping his campaign.  This is a very significant charge, akin to Nixon’s “plumbers” breaking into the Democratic National Headquarters.  The FBI and the former Director of… Read More »

Asset Allocation Weekly (March 3, 2017)

by Asset Allocation Committee Since the election of President Trump, a number of sentiment indicators have risen strongly.  There is concern that the improving sentiment isn’t warranted.  In this week’s report, our research supports the conclusion that improving sentiment is better described as a reflection of the overall state of the economy.  In other words, our… Read More »

Daily Comment (March 3, 2017)

by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] We are seeing a modest decline in U.S. equities and a softer dollar as traders square positions in front of two key speeches today, one from Vice Chair Fischer and the other from Chair Yellen.  It is highly likely these leaders at the Fed… Read More »

Daily Comment (March 2, 2017)

by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] Yesterday’s equity market rally was quite impressive; President Trump’s speech was clearly well received and the ISM data also came in strong, raising hopes of a better economy. This chart shows the yearly change in the S&P 500 index along with the ISM manufacturing… Read More »

Daily Comment (March 1, 2017)

by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] Although political analysts continue to dissect the president’s speech, the markets have clearly rendered a verdict—it was a winner.  The Trump trade of higher interest rates, stronger dollar and equities is back in force this morning.  Our take on the speech was that it… Read More »

Daily Comment (February 28, 2017)

by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] On the eve of President Trump’s first major address to Congress, financial markets are mostly steady.  As each day passes, however, the odds of passing a sweeping agenda lessen.  The temporary nature of political capital is perhaps one of an incoming president’s least appreciated… Read More »

Weekly Geopolitical Report – Germany: The Reluctant Superpower (February 27, 2017)

by Bill O’Grady Two recent articles caught our attention.  First, the New York Times discussed growing worries in Germany about a post-American Europe,[1] given the potential withdrawal of the U.S. from the superpower role.  Second, an op-ed in Der Spiegel went so far as to suggest that Germany should become the world leader of an anti-Trump coalition.[2]… Read More »

Daily Comment (February 27, 2017)

by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] Over the weekend, parts of President Trump’s budget plan were released to the public. According to the New York Times, the president plans to increase defense spending and scale back non-defense spending, most notably the EPA and the State Department. The increase in defense… Read More »

Daily Comment (February 24, 2017)

by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] During a panel discussion at the CPAC convention, White House Chief Strategist Steve Bannon and White House Chief of Staff Reince Priebus sought to quell rumors of a possible rift between the two. The discussion was mild-tempered, with both stating that they respect each… Read More »

Asset Allocation Weekly (February 24, 2017)

by Asset Allocation Committee Emerging market equities have been the best performing asset class year to date among the 12 we use in our asset allocation program.  Given that we currently have no exposure to emerging markets, it makes sense to review this market stance.  The U.S. dollar is one of the key variables impacting the… Read More »

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