Research & News

Asset Allocation Weekly (March 31, 2017)

by Asset Allocation Committee Historically, recessions tend to come from three sources—overly tight monetary policy, geopolitical events and inventory overhangs.  The latter has mostly become irrelevant due to improved inventory management, leaving overly tight monetary policy and geopolitical events as the typical causes of downturns.  As our regular readers know, we monitor both quite closely. One… Read More »

Daily Comment (March 31, 2017)

by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Global equity markets had a weak tone overnight but much of that is probably related to quarter-end adjusting.  We did see good Chinese data (see below) and sentiment surveys remain robust.  For example, the National Association of Manufacturers’ outlook survey hit a new all-time… Read More »

Daily Comment (March 30, 2017)

by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Markets are very quiet this morning.  We are seeing the dollar lift in part due to hawkish comments from Fed officials yesterday.  For example, Boston FRB President Rosengren called for three more hikes this year; we rate Rosengren as a moderate so his hawkish… Read More »

Daily Comment (March 29, 2017)

by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] The big news today is no surprise but is still important—PM May formally declared Article 50, beginning the process of the U.K.’s exit from the EU.  The law gives both parties two years to work out the exit details.  Article 50 has never been… Read More »

Daily Comment (March 28, 2017)

by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] As we mentioned yesterday, we want to expand our thoughts on equities.  Although growing disappointment is a worry regarding the president’s ability to execute his agenda, we do note that cash levels remain elevated. This chart shows the level of retail money market funds… Read More »

Weekly Geopolitical Report – It’s Tsar, Not Comrade (March 27, 2017)

by Bill O’Grady February 12th was the 100-year anniversary of the Russian Revolution.  Surprisingly, the Kremlin has taken a very low-key stance on the centenary.  We believe the government’s decision to downplay this historical event offers an insight into Russian President Putin’s thinking. In this report, we will present a history of the Russian Revolution, showing… Read More »

Daily Comment (March 27, 2017)

by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Global equity markets are in retreat this morning as bond yields fall and the dollar declines.  What we are seeing is the reversal of the “Trump trade” that came out of the election.  The Trump trade was to buy equities (especially financials), sell bonds… Read More »

Asset Allocation Weekly (March 24, 2017)

by Asset Allocation Committee In a recent Bloomberg Surveillance podcast,[1] Sebastian Mallaby made an interesting observation about the recent Fed tightening.  He noted how the asset markets mostly ignored or cheered the move.  Mallaby suggested that this isn’t necessarily a good outcome, meaning that central bank tightening should not be welcomed by the financial markets.  When… Read More »

1 167 168 169 170 171 216