Weekly Geopolitical Report – Thirty Years Since the Fall of the Berlin Wall: A Retrospective, Part II (November 18, 2019)

by Bill O’Grady

(Due to the Thanksgiving holiday, the next report will be published on Dec. 2.)

In Part I of this report, we presented the first two of four ideas about the post-Cold War era and how well they fared.  This week, we will cover the remaining two ideas and conclude with market ramifications.

Idea #3: The German Problem
Modern Germany sits in the center of Europe.  It has few natural barriers, meaning it is nearly perfect for commerce and impossible to defend.  The country was formed in the wake of the Franco-Prussian War of 1870.  Germany was fashioned by Prussian leaders coalescing other independent regions in the area that were formerly part of the Holy Roman Empire.  The decision to create a nation was due, in part, to prevent another military power from conquering the various principalities as Napoleon did and to take full advantage of the industrial revolution.

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