Research & News

Daily Comment (March 18, 2016)

by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] As noted below, we have a large number of Fed speakers today.  Perhaps we will get further insight into the FOMC’s thinking on policy.  It is becoming increasingly evident that the Taylor Rule models, which incorporate the Phillips Curve, are either out or being temporarily superseded. … Read More »

Daily Comment (March 17, 2016)

by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Before we dive into the Fed and oil prices this morning, there are a couple of geopolitical items worth noting.  First, Brazil is facing massive civil unrest this morning after wiretaps revealed that President Rousseff offered to appoint former President Luiz Inacio Lula de Silva as… Read More »

Daily Comment (March 16, 2016)

by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It’s FOMC Day!  Although no change in rates is expected, we will be paying close attention to the data forecasts and the dots chart forecast of future policy rates.  As we note in the Mankiw model discussion below, unless one has concluded that the Phillips Curve… Read More »

Daily Comment (March 15, 2016)

by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Overnight, the BOJ did as expected, leaving policy unchanged.  Governor Kuroda’s outlook for the economy was rather bleak, suggesting that there may be more policy measures coming.  Unfortunately, there is growing doubt over the efficacy of further policy easing.  The reaction to negative rates hasn’t been… Read More »

Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Apple Problem (March 14, 2016)

by Bill O’Grady On December 2, 2015, Syed Rizwan Farook and his wife, Tashfeen Malik, attacked a San Bernardino county facility, killing 14 people and seriously injuring 22 others.  The couple was subsequently killed by local law enforcement in a shootout several blocks from the facility.  The Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) opened an investigation… Read More »

Daily Comment (March 14, 2016)

by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Markets are trending higher leading into a busy week.  Here are a few highlights as most of the U.S. shifts to the dreaded Daylight Savings Time: Three central banks meet this week: The FOMC meets this week.  This meeting is one of the four that includes… Read More »

Daily Comment (March 11, 2016)

by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] After yesterday’s wild ride, risk-on has returned this morning.  Equities and the dollar are higher, while Treasuries and gold are lower.  Yesterday, the ECB far exceeded expectations with its stimulus package.  All was going according to plan after the announcement—the dollar rose, equities were higher—and then… Read More »

Daily Comment (March 10, 2016)

by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] SUPER MARIO RETURNS!  ECB President Draghi, unlike in December, didn’t disappoint.  The central bank announced the following: (1) The interest rate on the main refinancing operations of the Eurosystem will be decreased by 5 basis points to 0.00%, starting once the operation is settled on 16… Read More »

Daily Comment (March 9, 2016)

by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] It was a mostly quiet night in front of the ECB decision tomorrow.  Market expectations are optimistic that Draghi will come through with some sort of stimulus.  If the EUR fails to weaken after tomorrow’s meeting, it may signal that the ECB is mostly out of… Read More »

Daily Comment (March 8, 2016)

by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] Global equity markets are taking a breather today after an impressive rally.  Commodity prices have been rallying as well.  As noted below, China’s trade data came in a bit sloppy, with exports down 25.4% from last year.  However, all Chinese data is difficult to read in… Read More »

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