Research & News
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Evolving U.S. Policy Toward China and Its Impact on Investors (August 10, 2020)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Looking forward to the coming years and decades, today’s long-term investors face a stark question: will they be investing in a China-dominated world molded by authoritarian leaders in Beijing? Or, will they be investing in a more familiar, Western-dominated environment reflecting the historic leadership of the U.S. and incorporating… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (August 7, 2020)
by Asset Allocation Committee | PDF Investors often fall into the habit of sloppy thinking about government spending and its relation to the economy. For example, it’s easy to focus only on total government-sector expenditures. According to the White House Office for Management and Budget, total government outlays in the U.S. averaged 32.3% of nominal… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (August 6, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Here is an updated crude oil price chart. The oil market has stabilized at higher levels after April’s historic collapse. Crude oil inventories fell more than anticipated, declining 7.4 mb compared to forecasts of a 3.5 mb decline. The SPR was unchanged this week.… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Rethinking China: Part II (August 3, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady | PDF In Part I, we described China’s situation using Japan as a historical analog. This week, we will complete the analogy and examine in some detail the potential motivations of Chinese and U.S. policymakers. As always, we will conclude the discussion with potential market ramifications. China’s Situation Similar to Japan in… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (July 31, 2020)
by Asset Allocation Committee | PDF The pandemic has clearly affected the economy. The decline in economic activity in Q2 will be historic. However, it is still unclear what effects will be temporary and what will be long-lasting. A recent paper suggests that one permanent change may be a reduction in older workers. COVID-19 has… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (July 30, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Here is an updated crude oil price chart. The oil market has stabilized at higher levels after April’s historic collapse. Crude oil inventories unexpectedly fell, declining 10.6 mb compared to forecasts of a 1.0 mb rise. The SPR was unchanged this week. In the… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Rethinking China: Part I (July 27, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady | PDF President and General Secretary Xi Jingping has changed the course of Chinese governance. Deng Xiaoping Peng created a collective leadership model to prevent the rise of another Mao. Leaders were carefully selected and surrounded by leading figures of the various factions of the Communist Party of China (CPC). Term limits… Read More »