Research & News
Asset Allocation Weekly (October 30, 2020)
by Asset Allocation Committee | PDF Many investment managers think of “foreign equities” as one big, monolithic asset class and leave it at that. When setting a portfolio’s asset allocation strategy, many simply assign a certain percentage to the asset class and implement it by investing in a broad international index fund. Here at Confluence,… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (October 29, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Here is an updated crude oil price chart. Prices remain rangebound but are testing the lower boundary of the range. Commercial crude oil inventories rose 4.3 mb when a 1.5 mb build was expected. The SPR declined 0.7 mb; since peaking at 656.1 mb… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Election of 1876: Part II (October 26, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady | PDF Last week, we outlined the history of the presidential election of 1876. This election was disputed and required a special commission to resolve. This week, we will begin with a discussion of our current procedure for electing presidents and the impact of partisanship on the existing environment. We will use… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (October 23, 2020)
by Asset Allocation Committee | PDF The measures adopted to combat the spread of COVID-19 caused one of the most unusual recessions in American economic history. Although all recessions have their own unique characteristics, the recession that began in February was historically deep; it is likely already over too, making it one of the shortest… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (October 22, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Here is an updated crude oil price chart. Prices remain rangebound. Commercial crude oil inventories fell 1.0 mb when a 2.0 mb build was expected. The SPR declined 0.8 mb; since peaking at 656.1 mb in July, the SPR has drawn 16.5 mb. Given… Read More »
Keller Quarterly (October 2020)
Letter to Investors | PDF Every four years, investors contemplate the upcoming presidential election and begin to worry in earnest that it will turn their world upside down. I hear from clients that their financial plans will all come crashing down if the “wrong” person is elected. Now, I realize that elections have consequences, and… Read More »