Research & News
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Election of 1876: Part II (October 26, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady | PDF Last week, we outlined the history of the presidential election of 1876. This election was disputed and required a special commission to resolve. This week, we will begin with a discussion of our current procedure for electing presidents and the impact of partisanship on the existing environment. We will use… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (October 23, 2020)
by Asset Allocation Committee | PDF The measures adopted to combat the spread of COVID-19 caused one of the most unusual recessions in American economic history. Although all recessions have their own unique characteristics, the recession that began in February was historically deep; it is likely already over too, making it one of the shortest… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (October 22, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Here is an updated crude oil price chart. Prices remain rangebound. Commercial crude oil inventories fell 1.0 mb when a 2.0 mb build was expected. The SPR declined 0.8 mb; since peaking at 656.1 mb in July, the SPR has drawn 16.5 mb. Given… Read More »
Keller Quarterly (October 2020)
Letter to Investors | PDF Every four years, investors contemplate the upcoming presidential election and begin to worry in earnest that it will turn their world upside down. I hear from clients that their financial plans will all come crashing down if the “wrong” person is elected. Now, I realize that elections have consequences, and… Read More »
Asset Allocation Quarterly (Fourth Quarter 2020)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF We believe that we are now in an economic recovery which we expect to be long and slow moving. The Federal Reserve will likely continue to be aggressively accommodative, as will other global central banks, providing a favorable backdrop for equities. With an accommodative Fed, we retain elevated… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Election of 1876: Part I (October 19, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady | PDF Earlier this year, in the spring, we issued a five-part series on the election. At the time, we considered adding a section about a disputed outcome but decided that the odds of such a result were too low to consider. Since issuing that report, the likelihood of an uncertain and… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (October 16, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Here is an updated crude oil price chart. Prices remain rangebound. Commercial crude oil inventories fell 3.8 mb when a 2.0 mb decline was expected. The SPR declined 1.2 mb; since peaking at 656.1 mb in July, the SPR has drawn 15.3 mb. Given… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (October 16, 2020)
by Asset Allocation Committee | PDF Of all the different economic indicators published by the government and private entities, one of the least followed, but potentially very enlightening, is the Census Bureau’s monthly report on business inventories. The report tracks the value of inventories on hand each month at the retail, wholesale, and manufacturing levels… Read More »