Research & News
Asset Allocation Weekly (October 30, 2020)
by Asset Allocation Committee | PDF Many investment managers think of “foreign equities” as one big, monolithic asset class and leave it at that. When setting a portfolio’s asset allocation strategy, many simply assign a certain percentage to the asset class and implement it by investing in a broad international index fund. Here at Confluence,… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (October 29, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Here is an updated crude oil price chart. Prices remain rangebound but are testing the lower boundary of the range. Commercial crude oil inventories rose 4.3 mb when a 1.5 mb build was expected. The SPR declined 0.7 mb; since peaking at 656.1 mb… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Election of 1876: Part II (October 26, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady | PDF Last week, we outlined the history of the presidential election of 1876. This election was disputed and required a special commission to resolve. This week, we will begin with a discussion of our current procedure for electing presidents and the impact of partisanship on the existing environment. We will use… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (October 23, 2020)
by Asset Allocation Committee | PDF The measures adopted to combat the spread of COVID-19 caused one of the most unusual recessions in American economic history. Although all recessions have their own unique characteristics, the recession that began in February was historically deep; it is likely already over too, making it one of the shortest… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (October 22, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Here is an updated crude oil price chart. Prices remain rangebound. Commercial crude oil inventories fell 1.0 mb when a 2.0 mb build was expected. The SPR declined 0.8 mb; since peaking at 656.1 mb in July, the SPR has drawn 16.5 mb. Given… Read More »
Keller Quarterly (October 2020)
Letter to Investors | PDF Every four years, investors contemplate the upcoming presidential election and begin to worry in earnest that it will turn their world upside down. I hear from clients that their financial plans will all come crashing down if the “wrong” person is elected. Now, I realize that elections have consequences, and… Read More »
Asset Allocation Quarterly (Fourth Quarter 2020)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF We believe that we are now in an economic recovery which we expect to be long and slow moving. The Federal Reserve will likely continue to be aggressively accommodative, as will other global central banks, providing a favorable backdrop for equities. With an accommodative Fed, we retain elevated… Read More »