Research & News

Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Trade Facilitation and Trade Enforcement Act (June 13, 2016)

by Bill O’Grady In February, President Obama signed the Trade Facilitation and Trade Enforcement Act, a broad refresh of U.S. trade laws.  Title VII of this law concerns exchange rate and economic policies.  The earlier law, passed in 1988, required the Treasury Department to determine if a nation was “manipulating” its exchange rate.  If a… Read More »

Daily Comment (June 13, 2016)

by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Week of meetings: the Federal Reserve, BOJ, BOE and SNB all meet this week.  None are expected to change policy, although if one might, the BOJ would be the most likely.  The JPY has been on a tear and the Abe government would like to reverse… Read More »

Asset Allocation Weekly (June 10, 2016)

by Asset Allocation Committee In our asset allocation process, we focus on cyclical trends—trends that tend to have three- to five-year time horizons.  Two examples of these sorts of trends are the business cycle and the monetary policy cycle.  Although both cycles can last longer or less than three to five years, in general, these types… Read More »

Daily Comment (June 10, 2016)

by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] We are seeing a continuation of yesterday’s market activity, with equities coming under pressure and sovereign bond yields falling around the world.  Commodity prices are falling with equities, and the dollar is strengthening along with the yen.  The weakness we are seeing in equities isn’t anything… Read More »

Daily Comment (June 9, 2016)

by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Signs of a growing rebellion against negative interest rate policies (NIRP) were evident this morning.  The front page story in today’s FT is “Negative Rates Stir Mutiny with Bank Threats to put Cash in Vaults.”  The report indicates that major banks in Europe and Japan are… Read More »

Daily Comment (June 8, 2016)

by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It was another quiet overnight session.  As we note above, equity markets are mixed while U.S. equities continue to slowly trend higher.  Commodity prices are continuing to show impressive strength.  Several factors are lifting prices.  The weak employment data has put downward pressure on the dollar… Read More »

Daily Comment (June 7, 2016)

by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Chair Yellen’s speech yesterday was about as we expected; she didn’t say too much and did work hard to give her and the FOMC ample space to raise or not raise rates.  She did paint a view of the economy that was reasonably upbeat but also… Read More »

Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Tragedy of Venezuela (June 6, 2016)

by Bill O’Grady The decline in oil prices has been a major problem for oil-exporting nations.  In general, the degree of disruption is mostly based on how well the country was run before oil prices plunged. Venezuela has arguably been the worst run of the major oil producers.  The late President Hugo Chavez built an… Read More »

Daily Comment (June 6, 2016)

by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] The big news for today is Chair Yellen’s speech at 12:30 EDT today in Philadelphia.  This talk has been widely anticipated but will get even more attention following the much weaker than expected employment report for May, which was released last Friday.  Jon Hilsenrath of the… Read More »

Daily Comment (June 3, 2016)

by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] The employment data came in with a very negative surprise (see charts below for details).  Here are some of the highlights.  Non-farm payrolls rose by a mere 38k compared to estimates calling for a 160k rise.  The previous month’s numbers were also revised down by 59k;… Read More »

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